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达沃斯和新兴市场的美好理想终结了吗?

更新时间:2016/1/21 10:31:13 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Davos Takes a Fresh Look at Emerging Markets
达沃斯和新兴市场的美好理想终结了吗?

Ever since emerging markets became a major asset class in the early 1990s, a parade of potentates, policy makers and corporate chieftains have flocked to the stylish village of Davos in the Swiss Alps in the hope of becoming the latest global meme.

自从新兴市场在90年代初成为一项主要资产类别以来,许多当权者、决策者和企业负责人蜂拥前往瑞士阿尔卑斯山区的时髦小镇达沃斯,希望成为全球最新的米姆(meme)。

The growth revolution in China, the emergence of oil-driven sovereign wealth in the Middle East and Brazil’s economic miracle have all been celebrated, one time or another, by the global elites who gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos each January to ponder the world.

每年1月份全球精英都会聚集在达沃斯参加世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum),对世界大事进行思考。而中国的增长革命、中东地区由石油驱动的主权财富的崛起,以及巴西的经济奇迹都曾得到过他们的欢庆。

From 2000 on, the Davos boom and the emerging markets boom have been pretty much one and the same, a living ideal of globalization helped by central banks that have printed trillions of dollars of new money.

从2000年以来,达沃斯的红火和新兴市场的繁荣几乎完全是一回事,代表了一种由印制了数万亿美元新钞票的各国央行帮助实现的全球化生活理想。

But now, as interest rates in the United States begin to rise, these dollars have begun to flow out of China, the Middle East and Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling, debt levels rising and geopolitical fears spreading.

但现在,随着美国利率开始上升,这些钱开始从中国、中东和拉丁美洲流出。新兴市场增长率受挫,债务水平上升,而地缘政治的担忧也在蔓延。

Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.

过去一年中,大批资金加快了外流的步伐,而这一现象主要由几点担忧引发:中国将失去对货币的控制力、油价将下降到每桶20美元、巴西的问题将更为恶化。

And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.

现在许多人提出,需要重新考虑一下这种达沃斯倡议的由新兴市场增长和创新驱动的美好世界的概念。

“I have long maintained that the emerging-market hype was oversold when it was clear that what was going on was high commodity prices and cheap money,” said Dani Rodrik, an expert on globalization at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“我一直坚持认为,新兴市场热太过头了,很明显不过是大宗商品价格高企、信贷宽松,”哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的全球化问题专家丹尼·罗德里克(Dani Rodrik)说。

As for the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said that over the last 10 years it had become an echo chamber of sorts.

至于达沃斯世界经济论坛,他认为,在过去10年中,它已成为某种自说自话的回音室。

“What we are seeing now is lower growth and policy conflicts between the emerging and the developed world,“ said Mr. Rodrik, who will not be making the trip this time around. “It is going to be a different type of Davos this year.”

“我们现在看到的是更低的增长率,以及新兴经济体和发达国家之间的政策冲突,”罗德里克说。这一次他不会去达沃斯参加论坛。“今年的达沃斯将会与往年不同”。

Actually, the echo chamber has not been working as advertised. Since January 2010, emerging markets as an investment have produced a poor return. BlackRock’s benchmark exchange traded fund for emerging market stocks is down 25 percent, and most of that decline came in the last year.

事实上,这座回音室一直没有达到宣传中的效果。自2010年1月以来,新兴市场的投资回报率相当糟糕。贝莱德集团(BlackRock)的新兴市场股票交易所基准指数基金下跌了25%,而且大部分下跌是在去年发生的。

Perhaps the biggest sign that global investors have lost faith is that for the first time since 1988 (when only the bravest souls invested in these countries), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets than they have put in, according to research by the Institute of International Finance.

全球投资者失去信心的最大迹象或许是,根据国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)的调查,自1988年(当时只有最胆大的人才敢投资这些国家)以来,投资者在新兴市场撤离的资金首次超过了投入的资金。

In an unusually blunt speech in Paris this month, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that emerging nations needed a new model for growth after years of relying on easy money and high commodity prices.

本月在巴黎的一次异常直白的讲话中,国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示,在经过多年的宽松货币政策和高企的大宗商品价格后,新兴国家需要一种新的增长模式。

“Growth rates are down, and cyclical and structural forces have undermined the traditional growth paradigm,” Ms. Lagarde said. Moreover, she warned, the dollar’s continued strength against just about all emerging-market currencies could well result in a new round of financial uncertainty, pushing commodity prices and global growth forecasts even lower.

“增长率在下降,而周期性和结构性力量削弱了传统的增长范式,”拉加德说。此外她还警告,美元对几乎所有新兴市场货币的继续走强很可能导致新一轮的金融不确定性,进一步压低大宗商品价格和全球经济增长预期。

Since mid-2011, the dollar has gained more than 100 percent against emerging-market currencies in Turkey, Brazil and South Africa. And over the last six months, following China’s decision to depreciate the renminbi, previously robust monetary units in Singapore, Korea and Taiwan have also started to lose value against the dollar.

自2011年年中以来,美元对土耳其、巴西和南非等新兴市场货币的汇率涨幅超过了100%。而在过去的六个月中,在中国决定让人民币走低后,此前新加坡、韩国和台湾等地稳健的货币也纷纷开始对美元贬值。

“Our own estimates show that a slowdown of 1 percent in the emerging world would lower growth in advanced countries by at least about 0.2 percentage points,” Ms. Lagarde said.

“我们自己的估计显示,新兴市场经济增长每放缓1%,将降低发达国家至少约0.2个百分点的经济增长速度,”拉加德说。

Still, even with the gloom and doom surrounding emerging markets these days, there is little sign that standard bearers are forgoing their annual week in the Swiss mountains.

不过,尽管如今新兴市场前景暗淡,但几乎没有迹象表明领军人物们会放弃他们每年在瑞士山区度过的为期一周的会议。

This year, more than 320 representatives from Brazil, Russia, India and China — the so-called BRIC community of emerging nations — will be in Davos — compared with 237 from these countries in 2010.

今年,来自“金砖四国”(BRIC)——巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国——的320多名代表将出现在达沃斯,而2010年这些国家派出的代表为237人。

None of these representatives will be heads of state, though. In the past, Brazilian presidents and Vladimir Putin of Russia have led their countries’ delegations. This year, Russia is sending a deputy prime minister, Yury Trutnev, while China is sending a vice president, Li Yuanchao.

不过,这些代表中并没有国家元首。过去,几任巴西总统和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)曾带领本国代表团参会。今年,俄罗斯派出的是副总理尤里·特鲁特涅夫(Yury Trutnev),而中国带队的则是副主席李源潮。

Two large emerging markets that have been under significant stress of late will be sending their leaders. Turkey, recently rocked by terrorist attacks, will be represented by its prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. And the South African president, Jacob Zuma, who has gone through three finance ministers in the last five weeks, is also planning to show up.

近来承受着严重压力的两个大型新兴市场将派出他们的领导人。最近遭受了恐怖袭击的土耳其,将由其总理艾哈迈德·达武特奥卢(Ahmet Davutoglu)带队参加。而在过去五周换了三任财长的南非总统雅各布·祖马(Jacob Zuma),也计划在论坛上露面。

The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, whose popularity polls have sunk to single digits, will not be making an appearance, but her recently appointed finance minister, Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho, is scheduled to attend.

巴西总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)在民意调查中受欢迎度已降到个位数,不会在论坛上露面。但她新近任命的财政部长小纳尔逊·恩里克·巴博萨(Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho)计划出席。

Ready to engage in some damage control will be the top executives at BTG Pactual, the Brazilian investment bank whose former chief executive, André Esteves, is under investigation for corruption.

巴西投资银行百达集团(BTG Pactual)的高层管理人员们做好了控制损失的准备。该行的前首席执行官安德烈·埃斯特维斯(André Esteves)正在接受腐败调查。

In terms of panels themed for developing nations, the World Economic Forum will be serving up the usual fare this year. One will explore how companies in emerging markets cope with laws that discriminate against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender workers. Another is more straightforward: What will the impact of higher interest rates in the United States be on emerging market growth?

在为发展中国家设立的全会方面,世界经济论坛将在今年呈上平常的讨论主题。有一个将探讨新兴市场的企业如何应对歧视男女同性恋、双性恋和跨性别员工的法律。另一个更直接:美国利率的提高对新兴市场的增长有何影响?

But, as is always the case at the World Economic Forum, the meetings of genuine consequence will be the ones that you do not know are happening.

不过,真正重要的,是人们不知道的那些会晤。在世界经济论坛上,向来如此。

That could mean Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest money management firm, sitting down with Jean-Paul Villain, an executive at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, or Fahad al-Mubarak, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s central bank and overseer of the country’s $650 billion foreign reserve stash.

这可能意味着,世界最大的资产管理公司贝莱德的首席执行官劳伦斯·D·芬克(Laurence D. Fink)和阿布扎比投资局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)高管让-保罗·维兰(Jean-Paul Villain),或沙特阿拉伯央行行长、负责着该国6500亿美元外汇储备的法赫德·穆巴拉克(Fahad al-Mubarak)会坐下相商。

As oil prices sink, rumors have been rife that Middle East sovereign wealth funds — and Saudi Arabia in particular — have been calling in the billions of dollars of cash that they have allocated to global investment firms such as BlackRock. And traders say that the withdrawal of these funds, much of which has been invested in American stocks and bonds, has been a contributing factor to recently volatile markets.

随着石油价格下跌,传言四起,宣称中东的主权财富基金,尤其是沙特阿拉伯,在收回投给贝莱德等全球投资公司的数十亿美元。交易人员称,这些基金撤资是导致市场最近不稳定的原因之一。它们当中很多投资了美国的股票和债券。

Or the chief executives of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase could wind up huddling with Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of the China securities regulatory commission. The sharp swings in China’s stock market are having an outsize effect on markets in the United States, and the big American investment banks will want to hear what Mr. Fang’s strategy is for 2016.

或者,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席执行官可能会和中国证监会副主席方星海碰头。中国股市的剧烈波动极大地影响着美国的市场,而美国的大投行会想听听方星海为2016年谋划的策略。

But as central bankers, prime ministers and chief executives wrestle this week to make sense of it all, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has a fairly simple explanation: The impact on the developed world of a slowdown in China and other emerging markets is going to be greater than most people realize.

不过本周,在各大央行高管、政府部长和企业首席执行官努力想要弄明白一切时,摩根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)的新兴市场部门负责人鲁吉·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)却给出了一个相当简单的解释:中国等新兴市场放缓对发达国家的影响,会比大部分人认识到的更大。

“In 1997, the emerging world’s share of the global economy was 20 percent — now, it’s nearly 40 percent,” he said. “This is a big deal. What happens in China has an effect on the wider world, and I think that the Davos crowd has been slow to recognize this.”

“1997年时,新兴市场在全球经济中占的份额是20%,现在则近乎40%,”他说。“这举足轻重。中国发生的事情会影响外部世界,我认为,达沃斯的与会者没有及时意识到这一点。”

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