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新兴市场疲软引发基金投资者大逃亡

更新时间:2016-1-27 9:52:51 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

A Struggle to Quell Investor Fears Over Unsettled Emerging Markets
新兴市场疲软引发基金投资者大逃亡

Currency turmoil in China and fears of a global slowdown have led investors to abandon emerging markets in droves, rattling the large asset management firms that have long promoted such investments in their hunt for higher returns.

中国货币汇率动荡,再加上对全球经济放缓的多种担忧,导致投资者成群结队地放弃新兴市场,使大型资产管理公司陷入不安,因为他们在不断追求更高投资回报的过程中,一直在推动对此类市场的投资。

For more than a decade, star managers at Franklin Templeton, Pimco, Aberdeen and Oppenheimer seemed more like Marco Polos than Warren Buffetts, beating a path to Internet companies in China, oil giants in Brazil and gold mines in South Africa.

过去十多年,富兰克林-邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)、太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)、安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen)和奥本海默基金公司(Oppenheimer)的明星经理看起来似乎更像马可波罗,而非沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett),他们想尽办法投资中国的互联网企业、巴西的石油巨头和南非的金矿。

Investing in these high-risk markets came to be seen as a necessity for a diversified portfolio as well as an opportunity for these firms to levy some of the highest fees in the industry.

以前,在这些高风险市场的投资,开始被视为多样化资产配置中必不可少的选项,也被看作是这些投资公司攫取行业内最高利润的机会。

Now, with investors fleeing in a fury, asset management firms are struggling to stanch the bleeding.

现在,随着投资者匆忙撤离,资产管理公司正在艰难止血。

Last year, a record $105 billion was pulled out of global mutual funds, with 26 percent of that figure coming from asset managers based in the United States, according to the fund tracker EPFR.

据追踪基金动向的EPFR统计,去年共有1050亿美元资金从全球各类共同基金退出,创下历史最高纪录,其中有26%出自总部在美国的资产管理公司。

It was the third consecutive year of bond and equity outflows and one would have go back to the Asian crisis era of the late 1990s to see a similar retreat, said Cameron Brandt, the head of research at the data provider.

EPFR研究部负责人卡梅隆·勃兰特(Cameron Brandt)表示,2015年是连续第三个债券和证券资金外流的年份,这一年出现的资金撤退规模只有1990年代末亚洲金融危机的情况堪与之相比。

“This has become a chronic condition as opposed to the sudden onset of something,” Mr. Brandt said. “There is almost no conviction out there right now.”

“这已经成为一种持续的常态,而非突然冒出来的状况,”勃兰特说。“此时此刻,几乎没有什么是可以确定的。”

For large fund companies whose assets under management ballooned on the back of these flows, the world has changed drastically, largely for the worse.

除了这样的资金外流,一些大型基金管理的资产还出现大量流失。对它们而言,情况发生了剧烈的变化,而且大体上变得更糟。

Take the global bond manager Pimco. It has three bond funds that invest in developing markets that the research firm Morningstar tracks: a local currency sovereign bond fund worth $4.7 billion; a broader vehicle valued at $1.7 billion, and a corporate bond fund whose assets have eroded to $202 million from more than $1 billion.

就拿全球债券管理公司Pimco来说,据投资研究公司晨星(Morningstar)统计,它有三支债券基金投资于发展中国家市场:一支价值47亿美元的本地货币主权基金;一支投资工具更广泛、价值17亿美元的基金;还有一支企业债券基金,其管理资产已经从10亿多美元减少至2.02亿美元。

In total, investors pulled $6 billion last year from emerging market funds managed by Pimco, according to Morningstar.

据晨星统计,投资者去年总共从Pimco管理的新兴市场基金中撤出60亿美元资金。

Pimco has had to steady itself after the explosive departure of a star manager, William H. Gross, in 2014. Yet the emerging market outflows, on top of the billions of dollars that followed Mr. Gross out the door, have only added to the firm’s woes.

自2014年公司明星经理威廉·H·格罗斯(William H. Gross)离职一事闹得沸沸扬扬后,Pimco一直在努力稳住自身步伐。但格罗斯离开带走数十亿美元的资产管理业务之后,又出现新兴市场资金大举外流,对于该公司而言,简直是雪上加霜。

Pimco, once the world’s largest manager of emerging market bonds, has experienced industry- lagging returns from outsize bets in Brazil and Russia that have propelled an investor exodus that is getting worse by the month.

太平洋投资管理公司曾是全世界规模最大的新兴市场债券管理机构,如今却因为在巴西和俄罗斯市场上的大笔投入,导致收益上落后于业界平均水平,并使投资者抽离资金的现象逐月恶化。

Last December, investors pulled $619 million from the firm’s local currency fund, which has lost 21 percent of its value over the past year, trailing every fund in the category except one, according to Morningstar.

去年12月,投资者从太平洋的当地货币基金中抽走了6.19亿美元。根据晨星提供的数据,这一基金去年损失了21%的市值,在本类别中排名倒数第二。

A $15 billion fund in 2013, it now languishes below $5 billion.

该基金在2013年的规模达150亿美元,目前则在不到50亿美元的水平上挣扎。

While Pimco may be struggling, it is certainly not alone. A local currency debt fund run by MFS investment management in Boston lost $1.4 billion last year, and Trust Company of the West in Los Angeles had outflows of $1.8 billion from its $2.6 billion bond offering last year.

如果说太平洋在苦苦求生,那么它绝不是一个孤例。总部在波士顿的MFS投资管理公司打理的一支当地货币债券基金去年规模缩减了140亿美元,洛杉矶的西部信托公司(Trust Company of the West)的债券基金则从去年26亿美元的水平流失了18亿美元。

On the equity side, the $28 billion Oppenheimer Developing Markets fund suffered by far the largest exodus last year, with $5 billion departing the fund, according to Morningstar.

在股票领域,晨星的数据显示,原本规模达280亿美元的奥本海默发展中市场基金(Oppenheimer Developing Markets)去年流失了50亿美元,是失血最严重的一年,把以往的记录远远甩在了身后。

The fund is overseen by Justin Leverenz, who spends more than half the year circling the globe in search of unloved companies. But Mr. Leverenz was hurt in 2015 from big positions in Chinese Internet companies like Alibaba, which lost 30 percent over the last year.

该基金的经理人贾斯廷·莱韦伦茨(Justin Leverenz)去年花了大半的时间来周游列国,寻找尚未被发掘的好公司。不过,由于在阿里巴巴等中国互联网巨头身上重仓投入,莱韦伦茨在2015年损失惨重。阿里巴巴的股价去年跌了30%。

And in Europe, Aberdeen Asset Management, which manages $403 billion and specializes in emerging markets, had $48 billion leave the firm. Aberdeen’s stock price fell by half for the year.

在欧洲,安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)打理着4030亿美元,并以新兴市场见长,去年却流失了480亿美元。安本自身全年股价下挫了50%。

Traders and portfolio managers say that what worries them now is the sense that sophisticated institutional investors, who generally tend to take a longer-term view than their retail counterparts (and who might even be inclined to buy at these levels), have been the ones driving the selling over the last six months.

交易员和投资组合经理人表示,现在让他们担心的是,成熟的机构投资者一般比散户的目光要长远(甚至在这些点位上可能有买入的意愿),但在过去六个月中带头抛售的正是他们。

Instead of taking advantage of bond and company valuations that are at historic lows, these investors are acting more like lemmings, unloading the good and the bad in their portfolios because that is what they see their peers doing. The panicky climate is also forcing managers to have a chunk of cash on hand to meet redemption requests.

这些投资者并未利用处于历史低位的债券和企业估值,而是一窝蜂似地在抛售手中投资组合里的资产,无论好坏,只是因为看到同行在这么干。这种恐慌氛围也迫使经理人持有大量现金,用以满足赎回需求。

“We are seeing evidence that institutional investors are capitulating,” said Charles Collyns, an economist at the Institute of International Finance, using an industry term to describe the practice of wholesale selling when all hope is lost.

“我们看到了证据,表明机构投资者在投降式抛售,”国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)的经济学者查尔斯·科林斯(Charles Collyns)说。“投降式抛售”是一个行业术语,用以形容希望丧失殆尽之时的大规模抛售行为。

In a recent survey of more than 100 investment managers conducted by Northern Trust in Chicago, the No. 1 risk factor cited by respondents was that problems in China would continue to bring down growth rates in the developing world.

根据总部位于芝加哥的北方信托(Northern Trust)近期对逾百名投资经理人进行的一项问卷调查,应答者列出的头号风险是,中国的种种问题会持续拉低发展中国家的增长速度。

Also of concern, regulators and economists say, is the fact that many emerging market securities, especially bonds, can be very hard to sell, especially when markets are declining.

监管机构和经济学者称,令人担忧的还有,许多新兴市场的证券,尤其是债券,可能会难以脱手,尤其是在市场下行的大环境下。

The surprise decision by Third Avenue Management last month to close down a junk bond fund because it could not meet investor demands for cash has heightened fears that an emerging market bond fund could find itself in a similar position.

上个月,因为无法满足投资者对现金的需求,第三大道管理公司(Third Avenue Management)出人意料地决定停掉一支垃圾债基金。此举加深了人们的忧虑,恐怕新兴市场债券基金也会步其后尘。

“There is definitely a liquidity concern out there,” said Mr. Brandt, the research director at EPFR. “People are asking: ‘If I don’t get my stuff out now, will I be able to get it out later?’ ”

“肯定是存在有关流动性的担忧,”EPFR的研究主管勃兰特说。“大家在问:‘我现在不脱身的话,以后还能脱身吗?’”

Things would need to get much worse for that to happen. The bonds that trade in countries like Turkey, Mexico and Brazil are far more liquid than the deeply distressed corporate securities that Third Avenue’s credit fund favored.

不过,市场得比现在恶化许多,才会出现这种情况。土耳其、墨西哥和巴西等国市场上交易的债券的流动性,要远胜于第三大道的信贷基金青睐的那种深陷困境的企业证券。

That has not stopped the selling though — especially in recent months. For example, of the $2.5 billion that left Pimco’s local currency fund last year, $1 billion came in the last two months of 2015, according to Morningstar.

不过,这并未阻止抛售行为,尤其是在最近几个月里。比方说,晨星的统计数据显示,太平洋当地货币基金去年流失的25亿美元中,有10亿发生在年末那两个月里。

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