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日本经济再度负增长,安倍经济学受打击

更新时间:2016-2-17 8:49:16 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Severe Contraction and Falling Prices in Japan Signal Tough Test for Abenomics
日本经济再度负增长,安倍经济学受打击

Japan’s economy shrank in the final three months of 2015, the government said on Monday, undergoing a more severe contraction than experts had expected amid signs that global growth was stalling.

日本政府在周一宣布,该国经济在2015年最后三个月呈现负增长,其萎缩幅度较专家此前依据全球经济增长迟滞的征兆所做的预期要更为严重。

The Cabinet Office said output in Asia’s second-largest economy declined by 1.4 percent in annualized, price-adjusted terms. Most sectors — from consumption and housing investment to exports — deteriorated.

日本内阁府表示,在根据物价调整之后,这个亚洲第二大经济体在第四季度的年化增长率为-1.4%。从消费、房产投资到出口,大部分产业的表现都恶化了。

The decline in Japan’s gross domestic product was the second in three quarters, and was sharper than most private sector economists had forecast. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a contraction of 0.8 percent, on average.

日本国内生产总值已在最近三季里第二度负增长,幅度也较私营部门大多数的经济师预测的更大。彭博社(Bloomberg)早先征询的经济师估计的萎缩幅度,平均落在0.8%。

With concerns about the health of the global economy sending shudders though the financial markets, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is facing what may be the toughest test yet of his three-year-old campaign to lift Japanese growth rates and end two decades of deflation.

全球经济局势不佳,连带拖累了金融市场。在这一背景下,日本首相安倍晋三过去三年来为振兴日本经济增长、终结二十年来的通货紧缩所做的努力,可能会面临前所未有的严峻考验。

One crucial pillar of that campaign — a weaker currency — has lately begun to crack. The yen dropped by about 40 percent against the dollar from the time Mr. Abe took office in late 2012 until the end of last year, as the Japanese central bank carried out an aggressive program of monetary stimulus.

让日元走弱是安倍振兴经济方案里的重要手段,不过这个手段的效果近来开始显现疲态。自安倍于2012年底入主内阁一直到去年年终为止,在日本央行执行强力措施来进行货币刺激的情况下,日元对美元的汇率在此期间下跌了40%左右。

The devaluation of the yen enriched automakers and other big companies that earn most of their revenues abroad, and sent the Japanese stock market soaring. It helped nudge consumer prices higher, too, another central goal of Mr. Abe’s economic agenda, known as Abenomics.

日元贬值让日本汽车生产商等收益主要来自海外的大企业受惠,并使得国内股市大涨。这也小幅推升了国内消费物价,而它是名为“安倍经济学”的这一计划的另一个核心目标。

But since late last year, a flight to safe assets by global investors has reversed the yen’s direction. Stocks have tumbled — the Nikkei 225 average lost 12 percent last week, its worst weekly performance since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008. Inflation has slipped back to around zero.

然而自去年年底以来,全球投资人纷纷逃向安全资产,反转了日元的走势。股市猛跌,通货膨胀幅度也几乎归零。日经225平均指数在上周下跌了12%,是自2008年金融危机的谷底以来,日本股市最差的单周表现。

In response, the central bank — the Bank of Japan — announced last month that it would take the unusual step of cutting its benchmark interest rate below zero, joining a group of European countries that are also struggling with deflation.

为因应情势,央行日本银行(Bank of Japan)在上月宣布,将采取非常措施,把基准利率调为负值。此举使得日本加入了也在为通缩苦苦挣扎的部分欧洲国家之列。

The Nikkei surged more than 5 percent in early trading on Monday despite the gloomy economic report, possibly reflecting a slight easing in the yen after Asian markets closed on Friday.

在本周一的股市早盘,尽管经济数据惨淡,日经指数仍上涨了逾5%。这可能反映出,在亚洲其他股市于上周五收市之后,日元承受的压力稍有缓解。

Mr. Abe’s governing coalition faces an election for the upper house of Parliament this summer. Analysts and advisers say he has been counting on public support for his economic policies to extend the coalition’s majority there. The strategy now looks less bankable, though it is unclear whether Japan’s weak collection of opposition parties can capitalize on any voter backlash.

今年夏天,安倍领导的联合政府将要面临国会上院改选一役。分析人士与顾问表示,安倍一直以来都指望民众对他的经济政策的支持能维系他的联合政府在上院中的多数席次。如今看来,这个策略没那么可靠了,即便反对党组成的联盟力量孱弱,能否善用选民的反水来增添优势尚在未定之天。

For all of 2015, the Japanese economy eked out growth of 0.4 percent, the government data released on Monday showed.

日本政府周一公布的数据显示,2015年全年,日本经济勉强增长了0.4%。

Japanese G.D.P. data are often subject to sharp future revisions. The low growth rate, meanwhile, means those changes can easily make the difference between an economy that appears to be growing and one that is shrinking. Last quarter, for instance, the government initially said the economy was in recession, having contracted for two straight quarters, only to declare a few weeks later that output had actually grown.

不过日本的GDP常在公布后又大幅修正。上述增长率如此微小,也意味着未来修正数据时,经济增长的成绩很容易就会变成萎缩。以上季度数据为例,日本政府起初表示该国经济已连续两季度萎缩,因而处于衰退状态,不过政府又在几周后宣布,整体走势其实是增长的。

Even so, the economic contraction measured by the government’s data on Monday took place as the recent financial market turmoil was only beginning. Should the volatility continue, analysts say, Japan could fall into recession for real this time.

即便如此,政府周一发布的数据所显示的经济衰退发生时,最近金融市场的动荡才刚刚开始。分析人士表示,如果市场继续波动的话,日本这回可能真的要陷入经济衰退了。

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