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2016年投资哪里更安全?

更新时间:2016/2/21 10:31:55 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

For Some, It’s Time to Look Overseas Again
2016年投资哪里更安全?

Your portfolio of American stocks may have suffered lately but, to judge from major indexes, your portfolio of foreign stocks has probably done much worse for far longer.

你购买的证券投资组合里的美国股票或许近期表现不佳,但从主要指标判断,其中的外国股票已经在更长时间内比美股表现得更加糟糕。

Much of the difference can be explained by faster economic growth in the United States and a stronger dollar, which reduces the value of assets priced in other currencies. But all good – or less bad – things must come to an end, and many are encouraging investors to prepare for a shift in leadership and a prolonged period of relative strength overseas.

二者的很多区别可以通过美国经济的快速增长和强势的美元来解释,美元的升值减少了其他货币的资产价格。但所有好的或不那么坏的事情总会有个终点,并且很多迹象都在鼓励投资者调整方向,并显示海外市场在相当长的一段时间内看涨。

“In the rest of 2016 you’re going to have lots of opportunities in foreign markets, more than in the U.S.,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, an investment consultancy. “Foreign markets have had better valuations, and they’re correcting much more sharply.”

“在2016年的剩下的时间里,你将有很多机会投资外国市场,而不只是在美国国内投资,”投资咨询公司斯里库玛全球策略(Sri-Kumar Global Strategies)的总裁科玛尔·斯里-库马尔(Komal Sri-Kumar)说。“外国市场已经有更好的估价,并且它们能敏锐地做出修正。”

Fundamental factors like the interest-rate policies of central banks also could make prospects more favorable for foreign stocks. The Federal Reserve just raised rates for the first time since before the financial crisis and signaled that it would do so four more times this year, although Wall Street is skeptical that domestic economic growth will warrant such aggressive credit-tightening. Other central banks, meanwhile, are headed the opposite way.

像央行的利率政策这样的基本因素可能会对国外股票的发展前景有利。在金融危机前美联储刚第一次上调利率,并放出信号说今年还将四次上调利率,尽管华尔街对信贷紧缩将保证国内经济增长的预期持怀疑态度,但其他的央行正在走往相反的路。

“Monetary policy and business-cycle differences play in favor of international markets,” said Steven Wieting, global chief investment strategist at Citi Private Bank. “Central banks in the eurozone and Japan are easing. More than easing in the eurozone; they’re catching up to where the U.S. was four years ago.”

“货币政策和经济周期的差异也有利于国际市场,”花旗集团(Citigroup)私人银行部门的全球首席投资策略师史蒂芬·维廷(Steven Wieting)说。“欧元区央行和日本央行正在实行宽松的政策。不只在欧元区实行宽松政策,他们甚至是在追赶四年前的美国经济。”

The European Central Bank has been especially loose with credit as it tries to undo the damage caused by its earlier reluctance to match the Fed’s efforts to flood the financial system with money. The Fed’s quantitative easing program – purchases of Treasury bonds and other instruments – ended last year.

为试图弥补因不愿跟随美联储印制充斥金融系统的货币所造成的损失,欧洲央行一直在放松信贷。美联储的量化宽松项目——购买国库券及其他的调配方法——在去年结束。

Mr. Wieting encourages investing in Europe and oil importers like Japan that benefit from depressed prices. He would avoid countries with economies that depend on resource production, notably Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

维廷鼓励对欧洲和像日本这样受益于货币贬值的石油进口国进行投资。他建议避开对经济依赖于资源生产的国家投资,比如巴西、南非、加拿大。

David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Asset Management, says that “Europe is looking a lot more promising,” but he finds it “very hard to see Japan make any sustained progress” because of its low population growth and the likelihood of a change in government policy away from weakening the yen. A stronger currency would create difficulties for Japanese exporters.

摩根资产管理(J.P. Asset Management)的全球首席策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)说:“欧洲看起来前景更加光明,”但他发现“日本很难保持持续的增长”,因为日本人口增长率低,而且如果不考虑日元贬值的因素,很难看出政府政策有其他改变的可能性。日元升值可能会对日本出口造成困难。

There are enough difficulties in enough places for Hank Herrmann, chief executive of the asset manager Waddell & Reed, to recommend caution before venturing anywhere too far afield. American stocks represent safety to him in an unsafe world.

对于瓦德尔金融公司(Waddell & Reed)的首席执行官汉克·赫尔曼(Hank Herrmann)来说,很难找到足够多的地方去投资,对任何太远的地方投资都应当谨慎。对他来说,美国股票在这个不安全的世界代表着安全。

“I still think there’s enough uncertainty that staying home makes a lot of sense,” he said. “The difference between foreign and domestic may not be sufficient to overcome the uncertainties.”

“我仍然相信有很多的不确定性,投资国内可能会好一些,”他说。“外国和国内的区别也不够消除这些不确定性。

Mr. Sri-Kumar acknowledges that much can still go wrong in foreign markets, especially in the developing world. In fact, he’s looking forward to it.

斯里-库马尔承认投资外国市场也可能会出错,特别是对发展中国家。事实上他很看好投资发展中国家。

“I was negative on emerging markets for quite a while, but with things falling apart, I’m getting superoptimistic,” he said. He sees those markets, and markets dominated by commodity producers, reaching the capitulation stage, where downturns have gone on for so long and prospects look so bleak that investors just give up. That’s often when a lasting low occurs.

“在很长一段时间之内,我对新兴市场是持否定态度的,但随着事态的发展我变得超级乐观,”他说。他认为新兴市场以及由商品生产者所主导的市场现在到了抛售期,经济低迷已经持续了相当长的时间且前景暗淡,以至于投资者刚放弃了这样的市场。但这经常是一个持续新低点的开始。

His advice is to invest gradually in diversified baskets of emerging markets and commodities, either directly or through shares of companies that produce them, over the next six months, feeding in the same dollar amount at regular intervals.

他建议对新兴市场的多个地方和期货进行渐进式投资,直接投资或购买公司股份,在接下来的六个月内以相同的时间间隔进行投资。

“You’re going to have a terrific pick beginning in March,” Mr. Sri-Kumar predicted. “The timing could not be better, especially in emerging markets.”

“三月份将出现一个非常棒的经济峰值,”斯里-库马尔预测说。“这个时机是最好的 ,特别是对于投资新兴市场来说。”

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