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G20上海峰会能给世界经济开出什么药方

更新时间:2016/2/27 10:13:11 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Global Finance Leaders Meet as Economic Skies Darken
G20上海峰会能给世界经济开出什么药方

SHANGHAI — The global economy looks shaky. Markets for things as diverse as oil and European bank shares have plumbed new lows. The tried-and-true cures no longer seem to work.

上海——全球经济看起来极不稳定。从石油到欧洲银行股票这些差异极大的东西的市场均跌至新低。那些屡试不爽的解决办法似乎不再有效。

The task for global leaders this week: Come up with Plan B.

世界领导人本周面临的任务是制定B计划。

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s biggest industrialized and developing economies now arriving in Shanghai face their toughest task since the worst days of the global financial crisis. Europe is mired in low growth and Japan is teetering on the brink of recession, even though the Bank of Japan and a lengthening list of European central banks are pushing interest rates ever deeper into negative territory.

世界最大的工业化国家及发展中国家的财政部长和央行行长正陆续抵达上海,面临自全球金融危机最低谷以来的最艰巨任务。欧洲陷入低增长,日本濒临衰退边缘,尽管日本央行及越来越多的欧洲央行进一步将利率压向负值。

China, the world’s leading engine of economic growth in recent years, is struggling with heavy debts, a slowdown in manufacturing, stagnant exports and a flood of money leaving its borders. Countries that depend on selling oil and other resources are struggling under persistently low prices. The United States is facing a drag on growth as the strong dollar makes it cheaper for many consumers and companies to import goods instead of buying them from American businesses.

中国作为近些年来世界经济主要的增长引擎,正在应对沉重债务、制造业放缓、出口业停滞不前及资金外流等问题。 由于石油及其他资源的价格持续偏低,依靠出售此类资源发展经济的国家步履维艰。美元走强促使很多消费者和公司放弃美国公司的产品,转而购买进口产品,导致美国经济增长受阻。

That leaves a difficult situation for the economic policy makers of the Group of 20 nations, who will be hard pressed to come up with solutions during their meetings in Shanghai.

这给20国集团的经济决策者们出了一道难题,将会有很大的压力促使他们在上海会议中拿出解决方案来。

“What to do about the increasing risks to the recovery is perhaps the single most important question before the finance chiefs in Shanghai,” the International Monetary Fund said this week. It added: “The G-20 must plan now and proactively identify policies that could be rolled out quickly, if downside risks materialize.”

“经济复苏面临的风险日益增加,对此要采取怎样的应对措施,或许就是摆在齐聚上海的财长们面前的最重大的问题,”国际货币基金组织(IMF)本周表示。该组织还称:“20国集团现在必须规划并主动识别出一些政策,如果下行风险成型,这些政策可以迅速展开。”

During and right after the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, the Group of 20 produced broad agreements on many financial regulations, most notably a tightening of international capital standards. But in the years since, the disparate collection of economies from Argentina to the European Union has been known mostly for agreeing on generalities and making few changes, culminating in an unproductive series of meetings in Turkey last year.

在2008年和2009年,全球金融危机期间和刚刚结束后,20国集团针对很多金融监管制订了广泛的协议,其中最引人注目的就是对国际资本标准的收紧。但在之后的这些年里,这个涵盖了从阿根廷到欧盟的多元经济体的集团召开的会议,基本上都是泛泛而谈,几乎没有出台任何改革措施,去年在土耳其举办的会议也是毫无建树。

“The Turkish presidency of the G-20 led to no progress on any front,” said Ken Courtis, a prominent international economist and fund manager.

“在土耳其举办的20国集团会议没有取得任何进展,”著名国际经济学家、基金经理肯·柯蒂斯(Ken Courtis)说。

China, which holds the Group of 20 presidency this year, is one major concern. In August, China devalued its currency, the renminbi, by 4 percent with no warning, setting off sharp sell-offs in global markets. China now faces pressure to weaken the currency further as money leaves the country because of slowing growth — a prospect that could further hurt the global economic outlook.

中国既是今年20集团会议主席国,也是一个主要关注点。去年8月,中国在没有事先警告的情况下将人民币贬值了4%,在全球市场上引发大量抛盘。由于经济放缓,资金正在流出中国,它现在面临着让人民币进一步贬值的压力——这可能会进一步损害全球经济前景。

“What we’re concerned about is China. Could there be a break on China’s currency that could tip the global economy into recession?” said Charles Collyns, a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for international finance in the Obama administration who is now the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance.

“我们现在担心的是中国。中国的货币是否会突然变化,进而导致全球经济陷入衰退?”国际金融研究所(Institute ofInternational Finance)的首席经济学家查尔斯·科林斯(Charles Collyns)说。他曾在奥巴马政府担任财政部助理部长,负责国际金融领域。

Chinese officials appear to have gotten the message that silence is not always golden. At a financial conference here on Thursday, officials described how they would use government deficit spending to spur growth. A senior Chinese central banker pledged to preserve the value of the renminbi by firmly tying its value to a group of other currencies. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, has agreed to give a public speech on Friday morning in Shanghai, then hold a rare news conference afterward.

中国官员似乎已经明白,沉默不总是金。本周四在这里举行的一个金融会议上,官员们解释了他们会如何利用政府赤字开支来刺激经济增长。中国央行的一位高层官员承诺会维持人民币的币值,方法是把人民币与其他一些货币牢牢挂钩。央行行长周小川同意在本周五上午在上海发表一个公开演讲,之后再少见地举行一次新闻发布会。

China’s devaluations put pressure on rival exporters to do the same or risk losing their competitiveness. Many emerging markets, like Russia and Brazil, have allowed their currencies to fall steeply against the dollar or been forced into it, raising fears of devaluations of the sort seen in the 1930s, which led to a collapse of international trade. Countries with currencies that have stayed strong as safe havens, including the dollar and the Japanese yen, have seen growth suffer.

中国货币的贬值给同样出口的竞争对手带来了压力,如果他们不同样贬值货币,就可能会失去竞争力。很多新兴市场,如俄罗斯和巴西,要么是允许其货币相对于美元急剧下跌,要么是被迫这样做,因此一些人担心上世纪30年代那样的贬值狂潮再次发生,令国际贸易崩溃。一些国家的货币保持坚挺,被视为避风港,比如美元和日元,而这些国家的经济增长都受到了影响。

One of the biggest question marks over the group lies in how much it might do on currencies, beyond a general call for more stable exchange rates. But Chinese officials have worked to deflate expectations that the Shanghai meeting could be a reprise of the Plaza Accord, a deal between major economies in 1985 to fix volatile currency markets.

20国集团身上最大的一个问号是,在货币方面,除了泛泛地呼吁更稳定的汇率之外,它还可以做多少事情。不过,中国官员在努力淡化《广场协议》(Plaza Accord)可能在上海会议中重演的预期。主要经济体在1985年达成了《广场协议》,目的是让动荡的货币市场变得稳定。

A senior United States Treasury official said that he expected countries to reiterate previous commitments to manage their currencies responsibly, rather than shift their value. “I see those commitments as being a strong indication from G-20 members that they will manage their currencies in ways that are globally consistent,” he said.

美国财政部一名高级官员表示,他预计各国会重申之前做出的承诺:负责任地管理本国货币,不会改变币值。“我认为这些承诺将是一个强烈的信号,显示20国集团的成员国将在全球范围内采用协调一致的方式管理货币,”他说。

The official, who insisted on anonymity because of diplomatic considerations, said that the United States would push instead to call on countries with broadly measured surpluses on trade and royalties to stimulate domestic spending, particularly by consumers.

出于外交方面的考虑,这位官员不愿具名。他表示,美国将推进另一项主张,呼吁贸易和税费盈余较多的国家刺激国内消费,尤其是消费者支出。

Yet China has already stepped up infrastructure spending so much in the last decade that it is becoming harder to find projects that justify the investment. In Europe, the longstanding caution of the German government about large-scale spending has been a deterrent. In the United States, Republicans in Congress have been leery of the extra borrowing that could be needed to finance additional roads, bridges and rail lines.

然而,中国在过去10年大大增加了基础设施建设支出,以至于现在找到合理的投资项目变得更难了。德国政府对大规模支出长期持谨慎态度,在欧洲形成了一种阻力。而在美国,对于需要额外借款来资助公路、桥梁和铁路线项目,国会的共和党人一直持怀疑态度。

One question is whether China’s presidency this year can make the group more productive.

一个问题是,中国今年担任主席国,能否让G20集团变得更有成效。

Except on climate change, for which it made a large commitment to slow down emissions before the Paris agreement in December, China has sought to be recognized as a leader of global diplomacy without taking responsibility for specific results. In Syria, in South Sudan, and at times even on its own border in North Korea, it has been leery of trying to dictate any resolution to longstanding international concerns.

除了气候变化方面——去年12月在巴黎达成协议之前,中国就做出很大的承诺,表示要减缓碳排放——中国还在竭力使自己被认可为全球外交事务方面的领导者,但它不愿为一些具体的后果承担责任。在叙利亚、南苏丹,有时甚至是在中朝边境上,中国都谨慎地避免在长期存在的引起国际关切的事务上做出任何表态。

In the Group of 20, China has to cope not only with its own reluctance to take strong stands but also with the lack of a strong international consensus among the disparate nations on what the world should do to strengthen economic growth. “It’s hard in the context of a G-20 communiqué to get really concrete initiatives,” Mr. Collyns said. “So what I would expect is some kind of framework.”

在G20集团中,中国不仅必须应对自身不愿采取坚定立场的问题,还要面对迥然不同的各个成员国就世界该做些什么来拉动经济增长方面缺乏强烈国际共识的问题。“G20公报里很难出现真正具体的倡议,”科林斯说。“所以我预计会是一些框架性的东西。”

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