In recent days, two intelligence dossiers have been published making sensational charges involving President-elect Donald J. Trump and the 2016 election. Although they will be lumped together in the public mind, in truth they are as different as chalk and cheese.
近日公布的两份情报档案作出了耸人听闻的指控，均涉及候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和2016年大选。尽管它们在公众心目中会被混为一谈，但其实有着天壤之别。
The first of these reports, published last week, was an unclassified version of a United States intelligence community assessment that concluded with “high confidence” that President Vladimir Putin of Russia had ordered an “influence campaign” aimed at the presidential election, and that his goals included damaging Hillary Clinton and electing Mr. Trump. All intelligence contains an element of uncertainty, but this as good as it gets: a judgment corroborated by the F.B.I., C.I.A. and National Security Agency based on human intelligence, electronic intercepts and forensic investigation into the hacks of the Democratic National Committee and Democratic Party officials.
第一份报告于上星期公布，是美国情报体系一份评估报告的解密版，它“以极大的把握”得出结论：俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)曾授意开展针对美国总统选举的“影响行动”，他的目标包括损害希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的选情和帮助特朗普当选。所有情报都包含不确定性，但这一份已经不可能做得更好了：基于线人情报、电子拦截以及对民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)和民主党官员遭网络入侵之事进行的取证调查，联邦调查局(FBI)、中央情报局(CIA)和国家安全局(National Security Agency)一致证实了这一结论。
The second report — dumped on the internet by BuzzFeed News on Tuesday — is a very different animal. As BuzzFeed wrote, “The document was prepared for political opponents of Trump by a person who is understood to be a former British intelligence agent” — now identified as Christopher Steele — and its allegations are “unverified.” If true, the claims in the BuzzFeed dossier are sensational, including extensive contacts between Trump aides and Russian operatives and the Russian accumulation of dirt on Mr. Trump to be used for blackmail.
由BuzzFeed News于周二发到网上的第二份报告，与第一份的情况大不相同。正如BuzzFeed所写，“这份文件是由一名据悉当过英国情报特工的人士为特朗普的政治对手准备的”——该人士目前被确认为克里斯托弗·斯蒂尔(Christopher Steele)——其指控“未经证实”。如果是真实的，BuzzFeed公布的这份档案中的说法可谓极具轰动性，其中包括：特朗普的助手和俄罗斯特工有着广泛接触；俄罗斯收集了特朗普的黑材料，可以用来勒索他。
But are they true? No one knows. This could either be a Watergate-style scandal that engulfs the Trump presidency or a “Hitler Diaries”-style hoax, or anything in between.
It is worrisome that this material was published by BuzzFeed when major news organizations, which are not particularly friendly to Mr. Trump, declined to do so because they could not verify its claims. BuzzFeed made a serious mistake in simply posting all of this unverified information online, ignoring the journalistic practice of checking and corroboration. And the publication of the material is damaging not least because the questionable character of this dossier can be used to impugn the integrity of the American intelligence community, even though it was not the source.
Just because the allegations are unproven, however, does not mean they are all false. CNN reported, “U.S. intelligence agencies have now checked out the former British intelligence operative and his vast network throughout Europe and find him and his sources to be credible enough to include some of the information in the presentations to the president and president-elect a few days ago.”
Mr. Trump himself is doing nothing to dispel suspicions with his hyperbolic attacks and his denials that he has business interests in Russia — when his dealings there go back decades. He accused the intelligence agencies of releasing this “fake news” to take “one last shot” at him, and outrageously compared their acts to those of Nazi Germany — as if the Nuremberg Trials were held to punish the leaking of raw intelligence.
At the same time that Mr. Trump continues to exhibit paranoia about American intelligence agencies, he displays a trust verging on gullibility in the mendacious and murderous government of President Vladimir V. Putin. “Russia just said,” he tweeted, “unverified report paid for by political opponents is ‘A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FABRICATION, UTTER NONSENSE.’ Very unfair!”
Well, yes, of course Russia said that. But why should anyone believe what Mr. Putin says? The fact that Mr. Trump seems to give greater credence to the Kremlin than to United States intelligence agencies is precisely what has set off so much speculation about his real motives in cozying up to Mr. Putin.
There is only one way to get to the bottom of this tawdry affair: Appoint a bipartisan, 9/11-style commission to investigate all of the allegations and issue a public report. The former C.I.A. directors Leon E. Panetta and Michael V. Hayden, among other possible choices, would provide instant credibility if they were appointed to lead such a panel.
要彻底查明这桩龌龊事件，只有一个办法：指派一个由两党成员组成的、像调查9·11事件那样的委员会，对所有的指控进行调查，并发布公开报告。前中央情报局局长利昂·E·帕内塔(Leon E. Panetta)和麦克尔·V·海登(Michael V. Hayden)等人就具有足够的可信度，可以作为领导该小组的人选。
If Mr. Trump is genuinely innocent of any untoward connections with the Kremlin, wouldn’t he want a full investigation to clear his name? That he so adamantly opposes any such inquiry speaks volumes.
Yet the speculation, which was gaining currency even before the publishing of the dossier by BuzzFeed, isn’t going away. The reason is obvious: Mr. Trump appears to be infatuated with the autocrat in the Kremlin. As the Russian dissident and chess champion Garry Kasparov noted: “Trump has criticized: Republicans, Democrats, the pope, U.S. elections, C.I.A., F.B.I., NATO, Meryl Streep. Trump hasn’t criticized: Vladimir Putin.”
不过，这些猜测——早在BuzzFeed公布那些资料之前就已经在流传开来——不会消散。原因是显而易见的：特朗普似乎迷恋克里姆林宫的那位独裁者。就像俄罗斯异见者、象棋冠军加里·卡斯帕罗夫(Garry Kasparov)指出的：“特朗普指责过：共和党人、民主党人、教皇、美国大选、中央情报局、联邦调查局、北约(NATO)、梅丽尔·斯特里普(Meryl Streep)。特朗普没有指责过：弗拉迪米尔·普京。”
The closest Mr. Trump has ever come to directly criticizing Mr. Putin was at his news conference on Wednesday, when, speaking of the hacking (which he admitted for the first time was the work of the Kremlin), he said, “He shouldn’t have done it.” This was pretty mild censure, however, compared with his scorching suggestion that American spies were employing Nazi-like tactics. And even that mild rebuke was vitiated by Mr. Trump’s boast: “If Putin likes Donald Trump, I consider that an asset, not a liability.”
If it persists in office, Mr. Trump’s slavish devotion to the Russian strongman will continue to raise questions about the exact nature of their relationship. If the president-elect wants to put such suspicions to rest, he should get as tough with the Kremlin as he vows to do with America’s other enemies.