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Things Can Only Get Worse

If America had a parliamentary system, Donald Trump — who spent his first full day in office having a temper tantrum, railing against accurate reports of small crowds at his inauguration — would already be facing a vote of no confidence. But we don’t; somehow we’re going to have to survive four years of this.

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)入主白宫后,把整整第一天都用来大发雷霆,怒斥关于总统就职典礼人数较少的准确报道,如果美国也实行议会制,他可能已经得面对不信任投票了。然而我们不是;我们还得熬过接下来的四年。

And how is he going to react to disappointing numbers about things that actually matter?


In his lurid, ghastly Inaugural Address, Mr. Trump portrayed a nation in dire straits — “American carnage.” The real America looks nothing like that; it has plenty of problems, but things could be worse. In fact, it’s likely that they will indeed get worse. How will a man who evidently can’t handle even the smallest blow to his ego deal with it?


Let’s talk about the predictable bad news.


First, the economy. Listening to Mr. Trump, you might have thought America was in the midst of a full-scale depression, with “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation.” Manufacturing employment is indeed down since 2000; but overall employment is way up, and the unemployment rate is low by historical standards.


And it’s not just one number that looks pretty good: Rising wages and the growing number of Americans confident enough to quit their jobs suggest an economy close to full employment.


What this means is that unemployment probably can’t fall much from here, so that even with good policies and good luck, job creation will be much slower than it was in the Obama years. And since bad stuff does happen, there’s a strong likelihood that unemployment will be higher four years from now than it is today.

这意味着,今后的失业率可能不会比现在下降很多,所以,就算有良好的政策和好运气,就业岗位的创造还是会比奥巴马时代缓慢得多。而且由于不好的事情确实发生了,从现在起到四年以后,失业率很有可能高于今天。<纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com/>

Oh, and Trumpist budget deficits will probably widen the trade deficit, so that manufacturing employment in particular is likely to fall, not rise.


A second front on which things will almost surely get worse is health care. Obamacare caused the percentage of Americans without insurance to fall sharply, to the lowest level ever. Repeal would send the numbers right back up — 18 million newly uninsured in just the first year, eventually rising to more than 30 million, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. And no, Republicans who have spent seven years failing to come up with a real replacement won’t develop one in the next few weeks, or ever.

第二件几乎肯定会变得更糟的事情是医疗保健。奥巴马医改(Obamacare)导致没有保险的美国人的百分比急剧下降,达到最低水平。根据国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的估计,废除奥巴马医改将会导致无保险者人数急剧上升——第一年就将有1800万的新增无保险者,最终会超过3000万。不,共和党花了七年时间都没有拿出一个真正的奥巴马医改替代方案,他们不会在未来几个星期之内弄出一个,以后也不会。

On a third front, crime, the future direction is unclear. The Trump vision of an urban America ravaged by “the crime and the gangs and the drugs” is a dystopian fantasy: Violent crime is, in fact, way down despite highly publicized recent murder increases in a few cities. Crime could, I suppose, fall further, but it could also rise. What we do know is that the Trump administration can’t pacify America’s urban war zones, because those zones don’t exist.


So how will Mr. Trump handle the bad news of rising unemployment, plunging health coverage, and little if any crime reduction? That’s obvious: He’ll deny reality, the way he always does when it threatens his narcissism. But will his supporters go along with his fantasy?

纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com/


They might. After all, they blocked out the good news from the Obama era. Two-thirds of Trump voters believe, falsely, that the unemployment rate rose under Obama. (Three-quarters believe George Soros is paying people to protest Mr. Trump.) Only 17 percent of self-identified Republicans are aware that the number of uninsured is at a historic low. Most people thought crime was rising even when it was falling. So maybe they will block out bad news in the Trump years.

他们有可能。毕竟,他们把奥巴马时代的好消息都屏蔽掉了。在特朗普的选民中,有2/3的人错误地认为,奥巴马时期的失业率出现上升(3/4的特朗普投票者认为乔治·索罗斯[George Soros]出钱让人抗议特朗普)。在自认为共和党的人当中,只有17%知道,没有参保的人数达到历史低点。大多数人认为犯罪率在上升,尽管应该是正在下降。所以在特朗普统治期间,他们也许会把坏消息屏蔽掉。

But it probably won’t be that easy. For one thing, people tend to attribute improvements in their personal situation to their own efforts; surely many voters who gained jobs over the past eight years believe that they did it despite, not thanks to, Obama policies. Will they correspondingly blame themselves, not Donald Trump, for lost jobs and health insurance? Unlikely.


On top of that, Mr. Trump made big promises during the campaign, so the risk of disillusionment is especially high.


Will he respond to bad news by accepting responsibility and trying to do better? Will he renounce his fortune and enter a monastery? That seems equally likely.


No, the insecure egomaniac-in-chief will almost surely deny awkward truths, and berate the media for reporting them. And — this is what worries me — it’s very likely that he’ll try to use his power to shoot the messengers.


Seriously, how do you think the man who compared the C.I.A. to Nazis will react when the Bureau of Labor Statistics first reports a significant uptick in unemployment or decline in manufacturing jobs? What’s he going to do when the Centers for Disease Control and the Census Bureau report spiking numbers of uninsured Americans?


You may have thought that last weekend’s temper tantrum was bad. But there’s much, much worse to come.




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