您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

特朗普和安倍晋三的“电话情谊”

更新时间:2017-9-6 11:42:33 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Phone Buddy in North Korea Crisis: Shinzo Abe
特朗普和安倍晋三的“电话情谊”

TOKYO — President Trump has made some rocky telephone calls to other heads of state in his seven and a half months in office. But he can always count on one world leader for a good chat: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan.

东京——在上任七个半月的时间里,特朗普总统在与其他国家元首通电话时已有过不稳定的表现。但他总能指望与一位世界领导人亲切攀谈:那就是日本首相安倍晋三。

Ever since the pair met in November at Trump Tower in New York just days after the presidential election, they have had a warm relationship that goes well beyond the typical partnership between two longstanding allies.

自从去年11月,两人在美国总统大选结束几天后于纽约市的特朗普大厦见面以来,他们之间就一直有着一种远远超出两个长期盟友之间的一般伙伴关系的热络。

“It is very unusual,” said Mitoji Yabunaka, a longtime diplomat and former vice minister at Japan’s Foreign Ministry. “It did not happen that way in the past.”

“这非常不同寻常,”曾担任日本副外相的老牌外交官薮中三十二(Mitoji Yabunaka)说。“过去从未有过这种事情。”

Since Mr. Trump was inaugurated in January, he and Mr. Abe have met in person three times, golfed together once and talked by telephone 13 times, more than Mr. Abe spoke to President Barack Obama in his last four years in office. Over the past week alone, Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump have spoken by telephone four times.

自从特朗普今年1月就任总统以来,他已与安倍晋三见了三次面,打过一次高尔夫,通过13次电话,他俩通话的次数,比安倍晋三与奥巴马总统在后者第二个四年任期里通话的次数还要多。仅在过去一周,安倍晋三就与特朗普通过四次电话。

“The president responds to Abe as a buddy and a friend,” said Sheila A. Smith, a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “And Abe has worked hard to cultivate that kind of relationship with him.”

“总统对安倍晋三的反应是把他当成哥儿们和朋友,”华盛顿的美国外交关系委员会的日本问题专家希拉·A·史密斯(Sheila A. Smith)说。“而安倍晋三也在与特朗普搞好关系上作出了不懈努力。”

To be sure, with the North Korean nuclear crisis escalating and a missile flying directly over Japan last week, they have ample reason to chat.

可以肯定的是,由于朝鲜核危机升级,再加上一枚导弹上周从日本上空飞过,他们有充分的理由通话。

But that same logic applies to South Korea, and relations between Mr. Trump and his counterpart there, President Moon Jae-in, are decidedly chillier. Mr. Trump waited until the day after Sunday’s nuclear test in North Korea to call Mr. Moon, while he talked to Mr. Abe twice the day it happened, once before and once after the test.

同样的逻辑也适用于韩国,但特朗普与他的同行、韩国总统文在寅的关系明显地冷淡得多。朝鲜周日进行核试验后,特朗普直到第二天才与文在寅通电话,而在核试验的当天,他就与安倍晋三通了两次电话,一次在核试验之前、一次在之后。

Analysts sift through the terse accounts that both the White House and Mr. Abe’s office release describing their conversations. The word “ironclad” appears frequently to characterize the alliance between the two nations. As North Korea has come to dominate the conversation, the reports inevitably include censure of the North’s actions, with Mr. Trump recently saying that the United States was prepared to defend America’s allies “using the full range of diplomatic, conventional and nuclear capabilities at our disposal.”

分析人士仔细阅读了白宫和安倍晋三办公室就两人通话发布的简报。“坚如磐石”这个词被经常用来描述两国的联盟。随着朝鲜问题开始左右他们的谈话内容,简报会不可避免地囊括对朝鲜行动的谴责,特朗普最近还表示,美国已做好准备,为捍卫美国盟友不惜“使用我们能够支配的各种外交、常规,以及核力量”。

In talking to Mr. Trump frequently, Mr. Abe is partly ensuring that those guarantees remain in place, advisers say, given how erratic Mr. Trump can be, sometimes appearing to change policy direction between tweets. The worry is that the promises of yesterday might not hold today.

顾问说,考虑到特朗普这个人可能有多么地不稳定,有时,政策方向似乎从发一个推文到发下一个推文的瞬间就会发生改变,安培晋三经常与特朗普交谈部分是为了确保美国不改变对日本的担保。人们担心,昨天的承诺今天也许不再有效。

A person familiar with the thinking of Mr. Abe and his cabinet who is not authorized to speak publicly said that given the unpredictable pronouncements from the Trump administration, Mr. Abe wants to keep in close contact to ensure there are no misunderstandings.

一位熟悉安倍晋三及其内阁思维、但未被授权公开谈论此事的人说,考虑到特朗普政府会作出不可预测的宣告,安倍晋三希望通过保持密切联系来确保不出现误会。

The Japanese news media have seized on that unpredictability.

日本新闻媒体已在拿这种不可预测性做文章。

In a morning news show on Asahi Television the day after the North’s sixth nuclear test, commentators wondered how to reconcile Mr. Trump’s “Talking is not the answer!” tweet from a few days earlier with comments from Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis suggesting diplomacy is still an option. “National policy is not clear,” read a graphic on the screen.

朝鲜进行第六次核试验的第二天,朝日电视台晨间新闻节目的评论员们想搞明白,如何协调两种截然不同的说法:特朗普几天前曾发推文称“谈判不是解决问题的办法!”,而美国国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂尔森(Rex W. Tillerson)和国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)的言论都暗示外交手段仍是一种选择。当时,电视屏幕上出现了“国家方针不明确”的字样。

“It is still valuable to reconfirm that they have common goals and a common set of strategies or tactics,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat now teaching at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto. “Once is not enough. Reconfirmation should be continual and frequent. All the options are on the table. If the options are limited, you don’t have to” keep talking.

“重新确定他们有共同目标和一套共同的战略或战术,仍是有价值的,”现在京都立命馆大学教书的日本前外交官宮家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)说。“只确认一次是不够地。应该接连不断地、频繁地重新进行确认。所有的选择都摆在桌面上。如果选择有限,就没必要”继续谈下去。

Aside from the search for clarity, the telephone calls — which often coincide with calls between Japan’s defense or foreign ministers and their American counterparts — reflect the alignment of two conservative and nationalistic administrations.

除了寻找明确说法之外,这些通话也反映了两个保守派和民族主义政府之间的一致性,特朗普与安倍晋三通话时,日本的防务大臣或外交大臣通常也会与他们的美国同行通话。

Although Mr. Abe had expected Hillary Clinton to win the presidential election, his cabinet has found a more simpatico national security leadership in Mr. Trump’s circle. Mr. Abe, himself a hard-liner who has called for increasing Japan’s military power, also appreciates the tough talk against North Korea, say analysts.

虽然安倍晋三曾希望希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)能在总统大选中获胜,但日本内阁已在特朗普的圈子里找到了一个更志趣相投的国家安全领导班子。分析人士说,安倍晋三本人属于强硬派,一直在呼吁加强日本的军事力量,所以他赞赏对朝鲜的强硬言辞。

“I think the Japanese government wants to see some demonstration of American resolve,” said Michael J. Green, a former Asia adviser to President George W. Bush who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“我认为,日本政府想看到美国决心的更多表露,”前总统乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)的亚洲事务顾问迈克尔·J·格林(Michael J. Green)说,格林目前在华盛顿战略与国际研究中心工作。

“And saber rattling does not alarm the Japanese government as much as it does the South Korean government,” which has called for more diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea.

“而且,武力威胁并不让日本政府像韩国政府那样震惊,”韩国政府曾呼吁与朝鲜进行更多的外交和经济接触。

There are some risks for Mr. Abe, as the Japanese public is understandably squeamish about the prospect of a nuclear war on their doorstep given the country’s own history with it.

考虑到日本有经历核武器打击的历史,日本公众对自家门前的核战争前景有着神经质反应,这可以理解。从这个角度来看,安倍晋三面临一些风险。

But the frequency of the phone calls between Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump also simply demonstrates the personal chemistry between the two men.

不过,安倍晋三和特朗普之间的频率通话也不过是两人间个人关系的反映。

Mr. Abe was the first world leader to visit Mr. Trump after he won the election, and they spent hours playing golf at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., in February. During that visit, they bonded over the North Korean challenge when the North test-fired a ballistic missile while the leaders were having dinner.

安倍晋三是特朗普赢得总统大选后第一个与他会面的世界领导人,今年2月,两人在特朗普位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉歌(Mar-a-Lago)庄园打了好几个小时的高尔夫。在那次访问期间,朝鲜在这两位领导人吃晚饭时试验了一枚弹道导弹,朝鲜的挑战让他们建立起了联系。

While other world leaders have criticized Mr. Trump for his decision to withdraw from the Paris accord on climate change and for his comments about white supremacist protests in Charlottesville, Va., Mr. Abe can be a safe harbor.

其他世界领导人批评过特朗普退出巴黎气候协定的决定,还批评过他对弗吉尼亚州夏洛特维尔的白人至上主义抗议活动发表的言论。对特朗普来说,安倍晋三算是一个避风港。

“Mr. Abe provides him with a world leader who reaffirms Trump’s own leadership and says, ‘O.K., I am looking to you, I am depending on you, you’re the guy and I’m going to stand with you wherever you go,’” said Daniel C. Sneider, a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University. “And I think Trump needs that.”

“安倍晋三为他提供了一个肯定特朗普本人领导能力的世界领袖,安倍晋三说,‘行,我指望你,我依靠你,你是我的朋友,你走到哪里我都站在你一边,’”斯坦福大学东亚研究所讲师丹尼尔·C·施奈德(Daniel C. Sneider)说。“我认为特朗普需要这个。”

By contrast, President Barack Obama did not feel the need to talk to Mr. Abe as frequently, said an American diplomat in Japan who served during the Obama presidency and was not authorized to speak publicly.

奥巴马总统任职期间的一位驻日美国外交官说,相比之下,奥巴马总统不觉得有必要这么频繁地与安倍晋三通话。该人没有获得公开谈论此事的授权。

From Mr. Abe’s perspective, the frequent calls also demonstrate strength to North Korea, as well as China, which Mr. Trump has repeatedly called on to solve the North Korean crisis.

从安倍晋三的角度来看,频繁通话也是对朝鲜、以及对中国的一种力量展示,特朗普一再呼吁要靠展示力量来解决朝鲜危机。

The calls between the two leaders “primarily send a message to North Korea,” said Hajime Izumi, a professor of international relations and Korean politics at Tokyo International University. But he said Mr. Abe also “wants China to sweat more.”

两国领导人之间的通话“主要是向朝鲜传递信息”,东京国际大学国际关系和朝鲜问题教授伊豆见元(Izumi Hajime)说。但他说,安倍晋三也“想让中国更紧张”。

Mr. Abe stands out among world leaders for staving off censure from a president who during the campaign criticized Japanese trade barriers and suggested Japan pay a greater share of the cost of United States military support.

安倍晋三未曾公开批评过特朗普,尽管特朗普在竞选期间曾批评日本的贸易壁垒,并建议日本为美国提供的军事后盾支付更多的费用,这让安倍晋三在世界领导人中显得比较特别。

“Abe is one of the few Asian leaders who has been able to pretty deftly navigate the unpredictability and eccentricities of Trump to his substantial advantage,” said Evan S. Medeiros, who served as senior director on Asia in the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

“安倍晋三巧妙地对付了特朗普的不可预测性和古怪行为,来为自己营造巨大的优势,他是为数不多的能够这样做的亚洲领导人之一,”曾担任奥巴马国家安全委员会亚洲事务高级主管的埃文·S·梅代罗斯(Evan S. Medeiros)说。

Some critics accuse Mr. Abe of being too sycophantic in pursuit of a bromance with Mr. Trump.

一些批评人士指责安倍晋三在寻求与特朗普的兄弟情谊上过于阿谀奉承。

But analysts say there is little to be gained by disagreeing with the president.

但分析人士说,不同意总统的观点不会带来多少好处。

“It may be that President Trump is profoundly unpopular around the world,” said Mr. Green. “But if you are the prime minister of Japan and you have the opportunity to shape this almost unshapeable president, it’s in your national interest to do that.”

“特朗普总统也许在世界各地都极不受欢迎,”格林说。“但如果你是日本首相,你有机会来影响这个几乎不可影响的总统的话,这样做符合你的国家利益。”

One way the relationship could cool is if Mr. Abe finds himself in conflict with other leaders he is courting. On Thursday, he will meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Vladivostok, a leader whom Mr. Abe has pursued assiduously.

让他两人关系冷却的一种方法是,安倍晋三发现这么做与自己想讨好的其他领导人之间存在冲突。周四,安倍晋三将与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)在符拉迪沃斯托克会晤,安倍晋三一直在努力向普京示好。

Russia is likely to want to mediate the North Korean crisis and may diverge from the American approach.

俄国很可能要为解决朝鲜危机进行斡旋,而且方法可能会与美国的不同。

“Putin is going to push him to do what they want to do,” Mr. Sneider said. “And we don’t know if that conflicts with what Trump wants to do.”

“普京会推动安倍晋三去做他们想要做的事情,”施奈德说。“我们不知道那是否会与特朗普想要做的事情发生冲突。”

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表