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刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

更新时间:2017-9-13 10:51:48 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

South Korea Plans ‘Decapitation Unit’ to Try to Scare North’s Leaders
刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

SEOUL, South Korea — The last time South Korea is known to have plotted to assassinate the North Korean leadership, nothing went as planned.

韩国首尔——据我们所知,韩国上一次策划的刺杀朝鲜领导人的行动完全没能按计划进行。

In the late 1960s, after North Korean commandoes tried to ransack the presidential palace in Seoul, South Korea secretly trained misfits plucked from prison or off the streets to sneak into North Korea and slit the throat of its leader, Kim Il-sung. When the mission was aborted, the men mutinied.

上世纪60年代末,在朝鲜特种部队试图血洗首尔的总统府之后,韩国秘密从监狱和街头挑选了一些无法无天之徒,对他们进行训练,准备潜入朝鲜,将金日成一剑封喉。任务取消后,这些人发起叛乱。

They killed their trainers and fought their way into Seoul before blowing themselves up, an episode the government concealed for decades.

他们杀死了教官,一路杀进首尔,最终引爆炸药自尽,接下来几十年里,政府一直隐瞒该事件。

Now, as Mr. Kim’s grandson, Kim Jong-un, accelerates his nuclear missile program, South Korea is again preparing to target the North’s leadership. A day after North Korea conducted its sixth — and by far most powerful — nuclear test this month, the South Korean defense minister, Song Young-moo, told lawmakers in Seoul that a special forces “decapitation unit” would be established by the end of the year.

如今,随着金日成的孙子金正恩加紧研发核导弹,韩国再次开始准备对朝鲜领导层发起打击。朝鲜本月进行第六次——也是迄今威力最大的一次——核试验后,韩国国防部长宋永武(Song Young-moo)在首尔对议员们说,今年年底之前将会建立一支特种兵组成的“斩首战队”。

The brigade-size unit, unlike its earlier counterpart, would operate officially. The military has been retooling helicopters and transport planes to penetrate North Korea at night so that the forces, known as the Spartan 3000, can carry out raids.

和此前的类似组织不同,这个旅一级的作战单位将属于官方建制的一部分。军方已对直升机和运输机进行改装,用于在夜间潜入朝鲜,让这个名为“斯巴达3000”的战队发起袭击。

Rarely does a government announce a strategy to assassinate a head of state, but South Korea wants to keep the North on edge and nervous about the consequences of further developing its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, the South’s increasingly aggressive posture is meant to help push North Korea into accepting President Moon Jae-in’s offer of talks.

政府很少会公布暗杀国家元首的战略,但是韩国希望让朝鲜感到不安,并对其继续发展核武库的后果感到紧张。与此同时,韩国越来越激进的姿态是为了助推朝鲜接受文在寅总统的对话提议。

It is a difficult balancing act, pitting Mr. Moon’s preference for a diplomatic solution against his nation’s need to answer an existential question: How can a country without nuclear weapons deter a dictator who has them?

这是一个很困难的平衡之举,将文在寅倾向于采取外交手段解决问题和他的国家需要回答的生死攸关的问题相抗衡:一个没有核武器的国家,如何才能威慑持有核武器的朝鲜独裁者?

“The best deterrence we can have, next to having our own nukes, is to make Kim Jong-un fear for his life,” said Shin Won-sik, a three-star general who was the South Korean military’s top operational strategist before he retired in 2015.

“除了拥有我们自己的核武之外,我们的最佳威慑方式就是让金正恩担心自己会性命不保,”于2015年退役的三星上将申元植(Shin Won-sik,音译)说,他在退役前是韩国军方最高行动战略制定者。

The measures also raised questions about whether South Korea and the United States, its most important ally, are laying the groundwork to kill or incapacitate Mr. Kim and his top aides before they can even order an attack.

这类措施还引人怀疑,韩国及其最重要的盟友美国是否正在做一些准备工作,为的是抢在金正恩及其高级助手来得及下令发起攻击之前杀死或废掉他们。

While Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson has said the United States doesnot seek leadership change in North Korea, and the South Koreans say the new military tactics are meant to offset the North Korean threat, the capabilities they are building could be used pre-emptively.

虽然美国国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)宣称,美国不以寻求朝鲜政权更迭为目标,韩国人也说,新战术旨在挫败来自朝鲜的威胁,但他们正在培养的能力可以被用来先发制人。

The tactics led to a breakthrough last week when President Trump agreed to lift payload limits under a decades-old treaty, allowing South Korea to build more powerful ballistic missiles. The United States helped South Korea build its first ballistic missiles in the 1970s, but in return, imposed restrictions to try to prevent a regional arms race.

过去一周里,这种战略带来了突破:特朗普总统同意取消根据数十年前达成的协议设置的弹头重量限制,让韩国得以制造更具威力的弹道导弹。美国在1970年代帮助韩国研制出了它的第一枚弹道导弹,但为了防止挑起地区军备竞赛,也设置了一些限制。

“We can now build ballistic missiles that can slam through deep underground bunkers where Kim Jong-un would be hiding,” Mr. Shin said. “The idea is how we can instill the kind of fear a nuclear weapon would — but do so without a nuke. In the medieval system like North Korea, Kim Jong-un’s life is as valuable as hundreds of thousands of ordinary people whose lives would be threatened in a nuclear attack.”

“我们现在获准制造的弹道导弹能穿透深深的地下掩体,金正恩会藏身其中的那种掩体,”申元植说。“我们的想法是,如何才能既不发起核攻击,又能让对方感受到面对核武器时的那种恐惧。在朝鲜这样的中世纪体系里,金正恩的生命相当于核袭击会危及的数十上百万条性命。”

Although a majority of South Koreans, especially conservative politicians and commentators, call for arming their country with nuclear weapons of its own, Mr. Moon has repeatedly vowed to rid the Korean Peninsula of such weapons. In June, Mr. Trump reiterated Washington’s nuclear-umbrella doctrine, promising to protect the South with “the full range of United States military capabilities, both conventional and nuclear.”

大多数韩国人,尤其是保守派政治人物和评论人士,都力主韩国应该拥有自己的核武器,但文在寅多次公开宣布,要让朝鲜半岛远离这样的武器。6月,特朗普重申了华盛顿的核保护伞原则,承诺不惜“使用美国能够支配的各种常规军事力量和核力量”来保护韩国。

But after North Korea tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles in July, including one that appeared capable of hitting the mainland United States, South Koreans are not so sure the Americans would follow through.

但在朝鲜于7月份试射两枚洲际弹道导弹后——其中一枚似乎可以射至美国大陆——韩国对美国是否会依循承诺不那么确定了。

“Would the Americans intervene in a war on the peninsula if their own Seattle were threatened with a North Korean nuclear ICBM?” said Park Hwee-rhak, a military analyst at Kookmin University in Seoul.

“如果美国人自己的西雅图处于搭载核弹头的朝鲜弹道导弹威胁之下,那他们还会出手干预朝鲜半岛上的一场战争吗?”首尔国民大学(Kookmin University)的军事分析师朴辉洛(Park Hwee-rhak,音)说。

South Korea has now introduced three arms-buildup programs — Kill Chain; the Korea Air and Missile Defense program; and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation initiative, which includes the decapitation unit.

韩国现已推出了三个军事扩充项目:杀伤链(Kill Chain);韩国空中与导弹防御系统(Korea Air and Missile Defense)项目;大规模惩罚报复手段(Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation),其中就包括前述斩首部队。

Mr. Moon has vowed to expand the defense budget to 2.9 percent of South Korea’s gross domestic product during his term, from 2.4 percent, or $35.4 billion, as of this year. For next year, his government has proposed a budget of $38.1 billion, nearly $12 billion of it for weapons to defend against North Korea.

文在寅公开承诺,要在任期之内将国防预算占韩国GDP的比重从今年的2.4%提升至2.9%——今年的国防预算总额为354亿美元。他的政府拟将明年的预算总额定为381亿美元,其中将近120亿美元会花在用来抵御朝鲜。

In a Twitter post last Tuesday, Mr. Trump said, “I am allowing Japan & South Korea to buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States.”

特朗普在上周三的一则推文中表示,“我将允许日本和韩国大幅度提高从美国采购高精尖军事装备的数量”。

Under the Kill Chain program, South Korea aims to detect impending missile attacks from North Korea and launch pre-emptive strikes.

在杀伤链体系下,韩国致力于侦测朝鲜即将发起的导弹攻击,并进行先发制人的打击。

North Korea keeps artillery and rocket tubes near the border, and is capable of delivering 5,200 rounds on Seoul in the first 10 minutes of war, military planners in South Korea say. The North also operates hundreds of missiles designed to hit South Korea and United States bases in Japan and beyond to deter American intervention should war break out.

韩国的军事规划人员说,朝鲜在韩朝边境线附近部署了大炮和火箭弹发射装置,有能力在开战后的十分钟内向韩国发射5200枚弹药。朝鲜还握有旨在攻击韩国、美国在日本的军事基地乃至更远处的大量导弹,以便在战争爆发时震慑美国,令其不敢出手干预。

The need to detect an impending strike has become more critical. North Korea has made its nuclear bombs small and light enough — weighing under 500 kilograms, or about 1,100 pounds — to be fitted onto its missiles, though it is still unclear whether they are fully weaponized, Mr. Song, the defense minister, said last week.

侦测即将发生的打击变得愈发重要。国防部长宋永武于上周表示,朝鲜的核弹头重量已降低到500公斤以下,或约1,100磅,其体积之小、重量之轻,已经足以安装在它的导弹上,尽管目前尚不清楚它们是否已经充分实现武器化。

But detection has also become harder.

但是侦测也已变得更加困难。

North Korea hides missiles in its many underground tunnels. Switching to solid fuel has made some of its missiles easier to transport and faster to launch. In recent years, North Korea also has flight-tested missiles from submarines, which are tougher to detect.

朝鲜把导弹隐藏在其众多地下隧道之中。改换为固体燃料令它的一些导弹更加便于运输,也可以更快地发射。近年来,朝鲜还从潜艇上试射导弹,这种情况更加难以侦测。

And the potential consequences are huge.

潜在的后果十分巨大。

Miscalculation could prompt an unwarranted pre-emptive strike, which could start a regional nuclear war. Speaking to a United States congressional hearing in June, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., said, “We will see casualties, unlike anything we’ve seen in 60 or 70 years.”

错误估算可能导致毫无必要的先发制人打击,这可能成为地区核战争的开端。在六月份的美国国会听证会上,联合参谋长联席会议主席小约瑟夫·F·邓福德(Joseph F. Dunford Jr.)上将说。“届时我们所看到的伤亡将与我们在六七十年间目睹的任何情况都不一样。”

Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities are crucial, said Daniel A. Pinkston, a defense expert at the Seoul campus of Troy University. Without those capabilities, “they would be ‘shooting blind’ because the missile units could not identify the targets,” he added.

情报、监控和侦察能力至关重要,特洛伊大学驻首尔防务专家丹尼尔·A·平克斯顿(Daniel A. Pinkston)说。没有这些能力,“就会变成‘盲射’,因为导弹部队无法确定目标,”他补充说。

Last month, South Korea said it would launch five spy satellites into orbit from 2021 to 2023 to better monitor weapons movements in North Korea. In the interim, it is talking with countries like France and Israel to lease spy satellites. It also plans to introduce four American RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drones by next year.

上个月,韩国方面表示,将于2021年到2023年间将五颗间谍卫星送入轨道,以便更好地监测朝鲜的武器动向。目前它正同法国和以色列等国进行谈判,租用间谍卫星,以便应付过渡阶段。它还计划在明年引进四架美国RQ-4全球鹰(RQ-4 Global Hawk)无人侦查机。

If pre-emptive attacks failed, South Korea would hope its Korea Air and Missile Defense would shoot down any rockets from the North.

如果先发制人的打击失败,韩国希望韩国空军和导弹防御系统能击落朝鲜发射的全部火箭。

South Korea is planning to upgrade its PAC-2 interceptor missiles for a better low-altitude defense. Last week, South Korea helped the United States military install a Thaad missile-defense battery, which intercepts enemy rockets at higher altitudes. For additional protection, South Korea is developing its own L-SAM interceptor missiles, as well as installing more early warning radars for ballistic missiles.

韩国正计划升级其PAC-2拦截导弹,以获得更好的低空防御。过去一周,尽管受到村民的抗议,韩国还是帮助美国军方安装了一处萨德导弹防御系统,它能在较高空拦截敌方火箭。为了获得更多防护,韩国还在开发自己的L-SAM拦截导弹,并为弹道导弹安装更多的预警雷达。

After the North’s latest nuclear test, South Korea fired its Hyunmoo-2 short-range ballistic missiles in a drill simulating an attack on the North’s test site. In July, the South’s military also released simulated images of Taurus bunker-buster missiles hitting the defense ministry in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. South Korea is buying 260 Taurus missiles from a German and Swedish joint venture.

紧随朝鲜最近的核试验之后,韩国在模拟袭击朝鲜核试验场的演习中发射了一枚玄武-2(Hyunmoo-2)短程弹道导弹。7月,韩国军方还公布了其金牛座(Taurus)掩体导弹击中位于朝鲜首都平壤的国防部的模拟图像。韩国正从一家德国与瑞典合资公司购买260枚金牛座导弹。

The weapons are part of the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan. Under that program, South Korea would try to divide Pyongyang into several districts and wipe out the area where Kim Jong-un is believed to be hiding, defense analysts said.

这些武器是韩国大规模惩罚与报复计划的一部分。国防分析人士说,在这个方案中,韩国试图将平壤分为几个地区,并彻底摧毁据信金正恩所藏身的地区。

Washington’s decision to lift the missile payload limits may allow South Korea to develop new Hyunmoo missiles capable of destroying weapons sites and leadership bunkers deep underground, said Shin Jong-woo at Korea Defense Forum, a Seoul-based network of military experts.

华盛顿决定放宽对导弹有效载荷的限制,使韩国能够发展更强大的导弹。设在首尔的军事专家组织韩国防务论坛(Korea Defense Forum)的分析人士申中禹(Shin Jong-woo) 说,没有了这些限制,新的玄武弹道导弹便有可能摧毁朝鲜深藏地下的导弹与核设施,以及其领导人所在地点。

Mr. Shin said there was talk of building a Hyunmoo with a two-ton warhead.

申中禹说,有关方面曾经讨论过,建造一个能装载两吨重弹头的玄武导弹。

The earlier restrictions barred South Korea from attaching a payload weighing more than half a ton to its Hyunmoo missile when the rocket had a range of up to 497 miles.

先前的限制使得韩国无法将重量超过半吨的弹头装在射程最高可达497英里的玄武导弹上。

As word of South Korea’s new assassination plans has spread, Mr. Kim used his deputies’ cars as decoys to move from place to place, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers in June.

韩国情报官员于6月对国会议员表示,随着韩国已制定新的暗杀计划的消息传开,金正恩开始以副手们的汽车作为诱饵,在不同地点之间行驶。

Still, many say they doubt that the threat is enough to deter Mr. Kim. Only the prospect of nuclear retaliation will suffice, they say.

不过,许多人说,他们怀疑这个威胁是否足以吓阻金正恩。他们认为只有核报复的前景才能做到。

“The balance of terror is the shortest cut to deterring war,” Yoon Sang-hyun, a conservative opposition lawmaker, told Parliament last Tuesday.

“恐怖的平衡是阻止战争的最短途径,”保守派反对党议员尹相铉(Yoon Sang-hyun)于上周二对国会说。

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