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前所未见的投资热潮?比特币价格狂飙

更新时间:2017-11-28 11:44:42 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

As Bitcoin Scrapes $10,000, an Investment Boom Like No Other
前所未见的投资热潮?比特币价格狂飙

SAN FRANCISCO — Digital gold. The new tulip mania. A virtual currency.

旧金山——数字黄金。新的郁金香狂热。虚拟货币。

Whatever you want to call it, Bitcoin is on an extraordinary run, with the price of a single Bitcoin crossing $10,000 on some exchanges for the first time Monday — less than two months after it crossed $5,000 for the first time.

不管你想怎么称呼它,比特币的价格都在疯涨。周一,在一些交易所一枚比特币的价格首次突破1万美元(约合6.6万元人民币),而不到两个月前,它的价格才首次突破5000美元。

It is a bull market with few precedents in recent investing history. The Dow Jones industrial average, in its biggest year, 1915, went up 82 percent, or one-tenth as much as Bitcoin has gone up this year. Amazon’s red-hot stock is up only one-fifteenth as much as Bitcoin this year.

这种牛市在近期投资史上鲜有先例。道琼斯(Dow Jones)工业平均指数在涨幅最大的1915年上涨82%,也仅为比特币今年涨幅的十分之一。亚马逊(Amazon)今年火热的股价涨幅也仅为比特币的十五分之一。

The price has been pushed up by a flood of new buyers from around the world who think they have spotted a new kind of investment that could ultimately compete with gold as a place to store money outside the control of companies and governments.

抬高比特币价格的,是大批来自世界各地的新买家。他们认为自己发现了一种新投资,它最终可能堪比黄金,作为不受公司和政府管控的资金存放地。

The skyrocketing price has brought forth no shortage of skeptics, from Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, to Warren E. Buffett, who have variously called it a fraud, a bubble and a Ponzi scheme.

在比特币价格狂飙的背景下,持怀疑态度的人也不少,从摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)到沃伦·E·巴菲特(Warren E. Buffett),后者称比特币是诈骗、泡沫和庞氏骗局,不一而足。

The untethered price increase has, to a degree, proved their point, suggesting that this is an investment tied to few real-world fundamentals.

失控的涨价在一定程度上证明了他们的观点,表明这是一种几乎没有现实基础的投资。

But each time the skeptics have come forward, investors have defied them and bought more Bitcoins at higher prices. On Sunday, more than $5 billion was traded on Bitcoin exchanges, according to the data site Coinmarketcap.com — a greater volume than what many American stock exchanges see on a normal day.

但每当持怀疑态度的人站出来,投资者就会让他们的预言落空,把比特币的价格推向更高。据数据网站Coinmarketcap.com称,周日比特币交易所的成交额为50亿美元,高于美国很多证券交易所平日的交易量。

Believers in the Bitcoin technology, which is backed by a new kind of computer network, have argued that what we are seeing is the formation of a new asset class that could join stocks, bonds and physical commodities in the investment portfolios of ordinary people.

支撑比特币技术的是一种新的计算机网络。相信该技术的人认为,我们正在见证一个新的资产类别的形成,它可能会和股票、债券及实物商品一样,进入普通人的投资组合。

If this is a new digital gold, today’s extraordinary prices still leave the total supply of Bitcoins in the world at a value that is only one-sixtieth of all the real gold in the world.

如果比特币是一种新的数字黄金,尽管眼下价格奇高,但全球总的比特币供给量的价值依然仅为全球真金价值的六十分之一。

But even aficionados have been dumbstruck by just how quickly the price has gone up in recent months.

但即便是狂热的比特迷,也对近几个月比特币的涨价速度感到震惊。

“While there has been a slew of bullish news for Bitcoin of late, the rapidity of the ascent to $10,000 has taken many of us by surprise,” said Chris Burniske, an investor and a co-author of the book “Cryptoassets.”

“尽管最近有大量对比特币利好的消息,但涨到1万美元的速度之快出乎我们很多人的意料,”与人合著了《加密资产》(Cryptoassets)一书的投资者克里斯·波恩伊斯基(Chris Burniske)说。

Or as one trending comment on the Reddit social network put it: “This is officially madness. I am going to prepare myself for a large correction.”

或者就像社交网站Reddit上的一条热门评论说的那样:“这真的是疯了。我要为大规模调整做准备。”

The people who have been pushing up the price have not just been the libertarian-minded programmers who helped Bitcoin survive its rocky first seven years, after the mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto released it in 2009.

抬高比特币价格的,不仅仅是心怀自由主义的程序员。在神秘的创造者中本聪(Satoshi Nakamoto,音)2009年发布比特币后,正是程序员帮助比特币熬过了坎坷的前七年。

In recent months, trading among ordinary investors has taken off in South Korea and Japan. Seoul now has multiple storefronts where less technically adept people can buy and sell Bitcoin. It was on Korean exchanges where the price of Bitcoin first hit $10,000 on Monday.

最近几个月,韩国和日本普通投资者之间的交易攀升。首尔现在有多个店面,可供技术上不那么熟练的人买卖比特币。周一当天,比特币的价格正是在韩国的交易所率先突破1万美元。

On U.S. exchanges, the price was hovering around $9,700 on Monday.

在美国的交易所,周一的价格一直在9700美元附近徘徊。

Hedge funds have also been clamoring to get a piece of the action. More than 100 hedge funds invest only in Bitcoin and other virtual currencies.

对冲基金也在争着分一杯羹。仅在比特币及其他虚拟货币方面,就有超过100家对冲基金投资。

In many places, this trading is happening on exchanges with little regulatory oversight or transparency. This has given rise to fears that a problem at one of the exchanges could trigger a panicked run on Bitcoin, something that is not unlikely given the relative inexperience of many of the new investors.

在许多地方,这种交易都在几乎不存在什么监管或透明度的交易所中进行。这增加了人们的担心:只要一个交易所出问题,就会引发对比特币的恐慌连锁反应。鉴于许多新投资者相对没有经验,这种情况并非不可能出现。

A steep rise in the price of Bitcoin in late 2013 was punctured when the biggest exchange at the time, Mt. Gox, was discovered not to have the Bitcoins it claimed to have. That led to a three-year lull in the price.

2013年年底,当时最大的交易所Mt. Gox被发现并没有其声称持有的比特币时,比特币价格飙升的泡沫被戳破了,导致比特币价格进入了三年的平稳期。

But current investors see that after all the previous popped bubbles — and there have been several — the price eventually returned to its old high and then vaulted past it. The price of a Bitcoin is now more than seven times the high it reached in 2013.

但目前的投资者认为,在所有之前的泡沫破裂过后——此前有过几次——价格最终回到了以前的高位,然后又超越了这一高价。比特币的价格目前是2013年最高价的七倍多。

What’s more, the Bitcoin ecosystem is now more distributed around the world, with less reliance on a single company like Mt. Gox, which collapsed three years ago. While Mt. Gox hosted more than 75 percent of all Bitcoin trading in 2013, the largest exchanges today have only around 10 percent of the business. That should theoretically make the industry less vulnerable to problems at one institution.

此外,比特币的生态系统目前更多地分布在世界各地,较少依赖一家公司,例如Mt. Gox,后者于三年前倒闭。Mt. Gox上托管着2013年所有比特币交易的75%以上,如今最大的交易所仅占整个行业的10%左右。理论上来说,这样应该能够让该行业不容易受到某个出问题机构的影响。

Bitcoin has been able to flow around the world and reach investors in countries large and small, because of the singular design that was laid out by its creator.

由于比特币创造者独特的设计,比特币一直能在世界各地流通,大小国家的投资者都能接触到它。

Bitcoins are stored and traded on a decentralized network of computers that is not under the control of any government or company.

比特币在一个去中心化的计算机网络中储存、交易,不受任何政府或公司控制。

The recent price increases, though, have meant that Bitcoin is not living up to its promise as a currency routinely used for small purchases. Few people want to spend their Bitcoins if they believe the price will double in the next month.

然而,近期的价格上涨意味着比特币没有兑现其作为常规小额购买货币的承诺。只要相信价格会在下个月翻番,就几乎没人会想把比特币花出去。

Bitcoin has remained popular as a way to pay for illegal drugs online because of the ability to open a Bitcoin wallet without providing any personal information.

由于能在不需提供任何个人信息的情况下打开一个比特币钱包,比特币作为线上毒品交易的支付方式仍然十分受欢迎。

But Bitcoin has faced competition on this front from virtual currencies that provide more privacy. And the overall black market trade has diminished this year after the authorities took down some of the largest black market websites in the summer.

但在这一方面,比特币面临着来自能提供更多隐私的虚拟货币的竞争。并且在今年夏天,官方打击掉了几个最大的黑市网站后,黑市整体交易都已缩减。

This has been welcome news for many Bitcoin backers who want to see it lose its shadowy associations.

这对许多支持比特币的人来说是好消息,他们希望它能摆脱那些神秘的关联。

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