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揭秘金正恩的科学“智囊团”

更新时间:2018-1-8 19:41:49 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Rocket Men: The Team Building North Korea’s Nuclear Missile
揭秘金正恩的科学“智囊团”

When the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un celebrated the launch of a powerful new missile last month, he was surrounded by a group of top scientists and officials.

上个月(本文最初发表于2017年12月15日——编注),当朝鲜领导人金正恩庆祝一枚威力巨大的新型导弹发射成功时,他身边围绕着一群高级科学家和政府官员。

State media did not identify them, but they have all been seen with Mr. Kim before.

朝鲜官方媒体没有说明这些人的身份,但他们都曾经和金正恩一起出现过。

These men – known by nicknames such as the “nuclear duo” and the “missile quartet” – have built an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears capable of hitting any city in the United States, an extraordinary scientific achievement for the world’s most isolated country.

这些人——以“核二人组”和“导弹四人组”等绰号为人所知——已经建造了一枚洲际弹道导弹,似乎可以打到美国任何一个城市,对于世界上最孤立的国家来说,这是一个非凡的科学成就。

At only 33, Mr. Kim has been ruthless about consolidating power, executing scores of senior officials, including his own uncle. But he has showered his regime’s scientists with incentives and adulation, turning them into public heroes and symbols of national progress.

年仅33岁的金正恩为了巩固权力毫不手软,处决了数十名高级官员,包括自己的姑父。但是他却用激励和奉承对待为他的政权服务的科学家,把他们变成了国民英雄和国家进步的象征。

“We have never heard of him killing scientists,” said Choi Hyun-kyoo, a senior researcher in South Korea who runs NK Tech, a database of North Korean scientific publications. “He is someone who understands that trial and error are part of doing science.”

“我们从没听说他杀害科学家,”在韩国管理朝鲜科学文献数据库NK Tech的高级研究员崔铉奎(Choi Hyun-kyoo,音)说。“他明白,反复试验和错误是科学研究的一部分。”

Analysts are still trying to explain how North Korea managed to overcome decades of international sanctions and make so much progress so quickly. But it is clear the nation has accumulated a significant scientific foundation despite its backward image.

分析人士仍在试图搞清楚,朝鲜是如何克服长达数十年的国际制裁,迅速取得这些进展的。但明确的是,尽管它的国家形象落后,但有着深厚的科学基础。

Its new ICBM is a feat of physics and engineering that has stunned the world, and each of its six nuclear tests has been more powerful than the last, boosting Mr. Kim’s stature at home and his leverage abroad.

它最新的洲际弹道导弹是震惊世界的物理和工程壮举,而六次核试验一次比一次的威力大,提升了金正恩在国内的地位和在国外的影响力。

Still, it is unclear if the North has mastered the technology needed to keep a nuclear warhead intact as it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere.

不过,目前还不清楚朝鲜是否已经掌握了核弹头可以完好无损地重新进入地球大气层的技术。

Science Worship

科学崇拜

Mr. Kim has elevated science as an ideal in the regime’s propaganda and put his fondness for scientists and engineers on prominent display across North Korea.

金正恩在政府的宣传中,把科学抬高到一种理想的程度,并把他对科学家和工程师的喜爱在朝鲜各地进行昭示。

That is a departure from the practice of his predecessor and father, Kim Jong-il, who instead emphasized cinema and the arts as propaganda tools.

这不同于他的前任和父亲金正日的做法,后者更重视电影和艺术作为宣传工具的价值。

Four years after taking power in 2011, Kim Jong-un opened a six-lane avenue in Pyongyang known as Future Scientists Street, with gleaming apartment towers for scientists, engineers and their families.

在2011年上台四年后,金正恩在平壤建造了一条六车道大街,名为“未来科学家大道”(Future Scientists Street),街道旁边是熠熠生辉的公寓楼,供科学家、工程师和他们的家人居住。

He also opened a sprawling complex shaped like an atom that showcases the nation’s achievements in nuclear science.

他还建造了一栋形状像一颗原子一样展开的建筑,用以展示国家在核科学方面取得的成就。

Extravagant galas are held to celebrate scientific progress.

朝鲜还大办庆功会,庆祝科学取得的进步。

There is little doubt what is behind Mr. Kim’s passion for science. In ubiquitous propaganda posters, North Korean rockets soar into space and crash into the United States Capitol.

金正恩对科学的热情背后的原因是毫无疑问的。在到处可见的宣传海报中,朝鲜的火箭飞入空中,撞向美国国会大厦。

And after successful tests, scientists and engineers are honored with huge outdoor rallies. On their way to Pyongyang, their motorcades pass cheering crowds.

导弹试验成功后,朝鲜举行了大型户外集会庆祝科学家和工程师们的成就。在他们去平壤的路上,民众在车队沿途欢呼。

“They are already pretty sophisticated in metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and to some extent chemistry,” all areas tied to the nation’s civilian and military needs, said Joshua Pollack, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California.

加州明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies)高级研究员约书亚·波拉克(Joshua Pollack)说:“在冶金、机械工程,以及一定程度上在化学方面,他们已经相当成熟,”这些领域都与国家的民用和军事需求有关。

North Korea has imported scientific papers and journals from Japan for decades. And when it sends students abroad, it orders them to copy scientific literature and bring it home, said Michael Madden, who runs the North Korea Leadership Watch website.

数十年来,朝鲜一直在从日本进口科学论文和期刊。负责管理朝鲜领导人观察网站(North Korea Leadership Watch)的迈克尔•马登(Michael Madden)说,当该国把学生送到国外时,会命令他们将科学文献复制带回国。

United Nations sanctions prohibit the teaching of scientific material with military applications to North Korean students. Yet North Korea still sends students to countries such as China, India and even Germany, according to analysts and United Nations reports.

联合国的制裁措施禁止向朝鲜学生教授有军事用途的科学材料。但据分析人士和联合国的报告,朝鲜仍在派遣学生到中国、印度甚至德国等国家留学。

North Korea funnels its top science students into military projects. Those selected for the nuclear and missile program are relocated from their hometowns and allowed to return for visits only with government minders, according to defectors and analysts.

朝鲜还将顶尖的理工科学生引入军事项目。根据脱北者和分析人士称,那些被选中参加核武和导弹计划的人离开他们的家乡,回乡探亲得有政府陪同人员在场。

But they are also given better food rations — and access to weapons designs and components obtained by the nation’s spies and hackers, who have focused on the former Soviet republics.

但他们会得到更好的食物配给,并可以接触该国间谍和黑客搞到的武器设计图和零部件,这些间谍和黑客针对的目标是前苏联国家。

Familiar Faces

熟悉的面孔

Scientists and engineers also enjoyed special privileges under Mr. Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, as he struggled to rebuild North Korea from the ruins of the Korean War. He embraced those trained in Japan when Korea was a Japanese colony and later sent hundreds of students to the Soviet Union, East Germany and other socialist states.

科学家和工程师们在金正恩的祖父——在朝鲜战争的废墟中努力重建国家的金日成——手下也曾享有特权。他接纳了日本殖民统治时在日受训的朝鲜人,之后还将成百上千的学生送往苏联、东德及其他社会主义国家。

One of them was So Sang-guk, a nuclear scientist who emerged as a key figure in the nation’s nuclear program but seems to have retired.

其中一位名叫苏相国(So Sang-guk,音)的核科学家成为了朝鲜核计划的重要人物,但现在似乎已经退休。

Since taking power, Kim Jong-un appears to have overseen a generational shift at the top of the weapons program, elevating a group of scientists and officials about whom little is known.

自上任以来,金正恩似乎监督了武器计划高层的代际更迭,提拔了一群人们所知甚少的科学家和官员。

He tends to assign officials to different projects, letting them compete for his attention and favor. But analysts have identified six figures who have repeatedly appeared alongside Mr. Kim at key moments — four tied to missile development and two associated with nuclear tests.

金正恩往往会把官员安排至不同的项目,让他们为赢得自己的关注和青睐而展开竞争。分析人士已经确认了6位在关键时刻反复出现在金正恩身边的人物身份——其中4位与导弹研发有关,2位与核试验有关。

Two members of the “missile quartet” are scientists, according to state media. 1 Jang Chang-ha is 53 and president of the Academy of National Defense Science, and 2 Jon Il-ho, 61, is commonly described as an “official in the field of scientific research.”

据朝中社报道,“导弹四人组”中的两位成员都是科学家。1号人物,张昌河(Jang Chang-ha),53岁,朝鲜国防科学院院长;2号人物,全日浩(Jon Il-ho),61岁,常被称作“科学研究官员”。

5 Ri Pyong-chol appears to be the quartet’s highest-ranking member. A former air force commander, he serves as first deputy director of the ruling Workers’ Party’s munitions industry department.

5号人物李炳哲(Ri Pyong-chol)似乎是四人组内级别最高的成员。他是前空军司令官,朝鲜执政党劳动党(Workers’ Party)的首任军需工业部副部长。

6 Kim Jong-sik, 49, first began appearing with Kim Jong-un in February 2016 and has an engineering background. His rise has coincided with an acceleration of test launches, but he and Mr. Ri did not attend last month’s launch.

6号人物金正植(Kim Jong-sik),49岁,于2016年2月首次与金正恩一同出现,拥有工程学背景。他的晋升与朝鲜实验发射骤增的时期相同,但他和李炳哲均未出席上个月的发射。

7 Ri Hong-sop, the director of North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Institute, appears to be a leading figure in the nuclear program. He has been blacklisted by the United Nations since 2009.

7号人物李洪燮(Ri Hong-sop),朝鲜核武器研究所所长,似乎是核计划的领头人物。2009年起被联合国列入黑名单。

8 Hong Sung-mu, the other member of the “nuclear duo,” is a former chief engineer at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, the birthplace of the North’s nuclear weapons program.

8号洪承武(Hong Sung-mu), “核二人组”的另一位成员,朝鲜核武器计划的诞生地——宁边核设施(Yongbyon nuclear complex)前首席工程师。

North Korea has also recruited scientists from the former Soviet Union, offering salaries as high as $10,000 per month, according to Lee Yun-keol, a defector who runs the North Korea Strategic Information Service Center in Seoul and has studied the history of the North’s nuclear program.

研究朝鲜核计划历史、在首尔运营朝鲜战略信息服务中心(North Korea Strategic Information Service Center)的脱北者李尹镐(Lee Yun-keol,音)称,朝鲜也给出了每月1万美元(约合人民币6.6万元)的高薪,招募前苏联的科学家。

In 1992, a plane carrying 64 rocket scientists from Moscow was stopped before departing for North Korea. It is not clear how many, if any, former Soviet scientists made it to North Korea in the decades since.

1992年,一架搭载了64名火箭科学家飞往朝鲜的飞机在莫斯科起飞前被拦下。尚不清楚在这往后的几十年里成功抵达朝鲜的前苏联科学家的人数——若有的话。

Theodore A. Postol, a professor emeritus of science, technology and international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the North has “this fantastic record for flying rockets the first time and having them succeed.”

麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)科技及国际安全荣誉退休教授西奥多·A.·波斯托尔(Theodore A. Postol)称,朝鲜拥有“首次试飞火箭并成功的优秀记录”。

“We think it’s because they had rocket motors and designs that were basically Russian designs, and they had the expertise of Russian engineers who knew how to solve the problems,” he said.

“我们认为这是由于他们所拥有的火箭发动机和设计基本上都是俄罗斯的设计,他们也拥有知道如何解决这些问题的俄罗斯工程专家,”他说。

Father Figure

父亲形象

Little is left to chance in propaganda related to the weapons program. Even the smallest of details can be laden with significance.

与武器计划有关的政治宣传几乎不会留死角。即使是最微小的细节也承载着重大意义。

“By launching rockets and treating scientists like stars, Kim Jong-un gives his people a sense of progress,” Mr. Lee said. “It’s not just a military project but also a political stratagem.”

“通过发射火箭、把科学家当明星对待,金正恩让人民感受到了进步,”李尹镐说。“这不只是一个军事计划,也是一个政治策略。”

Mr. Kim’s annual visit to his grandfather’s mausoleum is the most important ritual of his dynastic regime. The missile quartet’s proximity to him at the July event was a sign of their high status.

每年拜访祖父的陵墓是金正恩朝代统治中最重要的仪式。在7月的仪式上,导弹四人组与金正恩的亲近关系表明他们的地位极高。

Missile experts were shown sharing cigarettes with Mr. Kim after last month’s missile launch — an almost unimaginable privilege in a nation where he is portrayed as a godlike figure.

在上月发射导弹后,导弹专家与金正恩一起抽烟——在这个将金正恩塑造得如神一般的国家中,这几乎是无法想像的特权。

After successful tests, Mr. Kim is sometimes even shown embracing his scientists, some of whom can be seen weeping.

在实验成功后,金正恩有时甚至还会与科学家们拥抱。有些科学家流了泪。

Perhaps the most surprising photo came in March, when Mr. Kim carried an unidentified official on his back while celebrating the ground test of a new rocket engine.

或许最令人惊讶的是那张3月份拍摄的照片,照片中,金正恩背起了一位身份不明的官员,庆祝一个新火箭发动机的地面试验。

The image evoked an old Korean tradition in which young men give their aging parents piggyback rides as a symbolic gesture of gratitude for the hardship they have endured for their children. But others say Mr. Kim was actually playing the parent, carrying the scientist on his back as a father might a child.

这张照片使人联想到朝鲜一个古老的传统,认为年轻人背起年迈的父母这一动作象征着向父母因为孩子所经受的苦难表示感激。但也有人说金正恩实际上是在扮演父母,像父亲会背起孩子那样,背起了科学家。

In general, Mr. Kim is presented in the regime’s propaganda as a father figure — a national patriarch whom the public is supposed to obey without question. That makes the symbolism of his interactions with these scientists and engineers even more striking.

一般来说,金正恩在官方政治宣传中展现的是父亲的形象——是一国的大家长,群众应毫无疑问地服从。这使得他与科学家和工程师们互动的象征意义变得更为惊人。

In traditional Korean culture, it is generally inappropriate for a son to smoke with his father or even with a teacher. One would only do so with great reluctance — and gratitude — at the elder’s insistence. In effect, Mr. Kim is insisting that these scientists take a bow.

在朝鲜的传统文化中,儿子与父辈一起吸烟或与教师一起吸烟往往会被视为不当举动。只有在长辈的坚持下,人们才会极不情愿地、怀着极大的感激之情这么做。实际上,金正恩等于是一直坚持让科学家鞠躬致谢。

But even as he honors these men and celebrates their accomplishments, they remain bit players on the stage. Every scientist in North Korea, no matter how important, must credit Mr. Kim for his successes, just as the nation’s athletes never fail to cite him as inspiration for their achievements at the Olympics and other competitions.

即使金正恩授予这些人荣誉、庆祝他们的成就,他们仍然只是舞台上的小角色。朝鲜的每一位科学家,不论多么重要,一定要将自己的成功归于金正恩,就像参加奥运会或其他比赛的朝鲜运动员们永远不会忘记表示是金正恩鼓舞了他们取得成就。

In the end, the real star of the nuclear weapons program is Mr. Kim himself.

归根结底,核武器计划的真正明星是金正恩自己。

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