快捷搜索: 纽约时报  抗疫  经济学人  武汉  疫情  香港 


Only 5 Nations Can Hit Any Place on Earth With a Missile. For Now.

Only 5 Nations Can Hit Any Place on Earth With a Missile. For Now.


North Korea has drastically increase the range of its missiles. In tests last year, the nation showed that it could probably strike the United States.


North Korea is among a number of countries that have been working to improve the accuracy and range of their missiles.


“We believe we’re entering a missile renaissance,” said Ian Williams, an associate director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has been compiling data on missile programs in different countries.

“我们相信我们正在迎来一场导弹的复兴,”华盛顿国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)副主任伊恩·威廉姆斯(Ian Williams)说,他一直在汇集整理各个国家的导弹计划数据。

A growing number of countries with ready access to missiles increases regional tensions and makes war more likely, Mr. Williams said. Countries are more apt to use their arsenals if they think their missiles could be targeted.


In addition, many of the missiles being developed by these countries are based on obsolete technologies, which makes them less accurate, increasing the risk to civilians. And there is a risk that missiles could fall into the hands of militias and terrorist groups.


Many of the countries that have heavily invested in missiles over the last two decades are in well-known hotspots in Asia and the Middle East.


Countries investing in missiles are often trying to deter regional adversaries. But the effects of this arms race ripples across the globe.


North Korea is an example of the danger. Estimates of the country’s maximum missile range went from 745 miles in 1990 to more than 8,000 miles now. That’s enough to strike about half of the world, including the United States mainland. (During the same period, South Korea gained the ability to strike anywhere in North Korea.)


Countries like Iran, North Korea and Pakistan have robust missile development programs. And the similarity of some of their missiles indicates that they have collaborated to share technology.


Pakistan began investing more heavily in its missile program in the 1990s and is believed to have also collaborated with China. By the mid-2000s, Pakistan had the ability to strike most of India, its main regional rival.


India, in turn, became capable of striking anywhere in Pakistan and most of China, another regional rival, in the last two decades. India is now collaborating with Russia to develop cruise missiles.


Saudi Arabia and Israel were already able to strike Iran before 1990. But now Iran could strike back at either country, thanks in part to technology it acquired from North Korea.


Additionally, both India and North Korea are working on submarine-launched missiles, which would enable the two nations to better hide their missiles to use in retaliatory strikes.


Another area of concern is militias or terrorist groups getting access to missiles.


One clear example of this happened in November, when a ballistic missile fired from Yemen reached Saudi Arabia’s capital . The missile was fired by Houthi rebels, a Shiite militia that took control of large parts of Yemen three years ago and that is backed by Iran and Hezbollah, a militant group from Lebanon.


The Arab League has accused the Houthis of firing dozens of missiles against Saudi Arabia since the kingdom began an offensive to oust the rebels in 2015.


The weapon used against Saudi Arabia was a variation of the Scud missile.

此次对沙特阿拉伯使用的武器是飞毛腿(Scud)导弹的变体。<-->纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com<-->

The Scud and its variations have become some of the most common missiles in the world. Russia originally developed the Scud in the 1950s to carry weapons of mass destruction.


The missile played a crucial role in weapons programs of countries like North Korea and Iran. The weapons produced by North Korea are examples of how difficult it is to stop missiles from spreading.


Despite decades of sanctions, the country developed a family of ballistic missiles using lessons learned from the Scud. Some of the descendants were sold to other nations.


“Soviet – later North Korean – Scuds might be a sort of gateway drug to a missile program, but the big story is domestic proliferation,” said Jeffrey Lewis , director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

“苏联的飞毛腿——乃至后来朝鲜的飞毛腿——可能相当于导弹项目的入门毒品,但最重要的环节还是国内导弹数量的激增,”明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)东亚核不扩散项目主任杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)说。

Here are some of the weapons, including an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, that North Korea developed based on the Scud design.


Trying to prevent the spread of missile technology is very difficult. But it’s nearly impossible to stop the trade in smaller parts, like guidance systems and engines, as well as human expertise. A single computer thumb drive can hold many secrets.


And, sometimes, a single piece can be the catalyst for a breakthrough: A powerful Soviet engine design that North Korea acquired is thought to be a main driver of the country’s recent advances.


Dr. Lewis added that that many counties are now learning the secrets of rocketry and how to make progressively more threatening models. India, for example, is working on a missile that could enable it to strike nearly half of the planet.


The rising threat of missile proliferation has sparked new control efforts by the Missile Technology Control Regime, a group of 35 countries that seeks to restrict exports of missiles and their components.

导弹扩散威胁日益增加,促使“导弹科技管制建制”(Missile Technology Control Regime)组织展开了一项新行动,这是一个由35个国家构成的集团,旨在限制导弹及其部件的出口。

The group in a recent statement highlighted the “critical importance” of its work for addressing the rapid changes in how weapons are developed and transferred.


But some analysts are skeptical that it is possible to stop missile transfers. “The prospects for controlling proliferation of missiles are fading rapidly as the technology to build them becomes more prosaic,” Dr. Lewis said.




  • 36小时环游新加坡
  • 中国颁布新规,限制未成年人玩游戏
  • 辞掉工作、花了57天,他们找回了走失的狗
  • 改善健康也许很简单:每天少吃300卡
  • 伦敦也为空气污染发愁
  • 最新评论

    留言与评论(共有 条评论)