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全球海平面持续上升,可能淹没主要沿海城市

    Sea level rise could nearly wipe out some of the world's most important coastal cities by 2050, according to a new study that suggests the impact on humans will be three times as great as previously estimated.

    一项最新研究显示,到2050年,海平面上升对人类的影响将是之前预计的三倍,这可能会几乎抹掉世界上一些最重要的沿海城市。

    In a paper published on Tuesday, the authors developed a more accurate calculation of land elevation based on satellite readings, the standard way to estimate the impact of a large area of sea-level rise, and found that previous data were too optimistic. New research suggests that by the middle of the century, about 150 million people will be living on land below sea level.

    在周二发表的一篇论文中,作者开发了一种更精确的、基于卫星读数的陆地高程计算方法,这是估计大面积海平面上升影响的标准方法,他们发现之前的数据过于乐观。新的研究表明,到本世纪中叶,约有1.5亿人将生活在海平面以下的陆地上。

    Southern Vietnam could disappear altogether.

    越南南部可能会完全消失。

    The first map shows earlier projections of inundated land by 2050. But the new outlook, the second map, suggests that the lower parts of the country will be flooded at high tide.

    第一张地图显示了早些时候对2050年淹没陆地的预测。但新的前景,也就是第二张地图,表明该国的低处将在涨潮时被淹没。

    More than 20 million people, almost a quarter of Vietnam's population, live on land that is about to be submerged.

    越南有2000多万人口生活在即将被淹没的土地上,几乎占总人口的四分之一。

    The study, by the new jersey-based scientific group Climate Central, was published in the journal Nature Communications. It says much of ho chi minh city, Vietnam's economic hub, will disappear with it. These projections do not take into account future population growth or land loss from coastal erosion.

    由新泽西州的科学组织气候中心(Climate Central)所做的这项研究,发表在《自然通讯》(Nature Communications)期刊上。它称,越南的经济中心胡志明市的大部分地区将随之消失。这些预测没有考虑未来的人口增长或海岸侵蚀造成的土地损失。

    Scott a. Kulp, one of the authors of the paper and A researcher at the climate center, said that standard elevation measurements using satellites make it difficult to distinguish real ground height from the tops of trees or buildings. So he and Benjamin Strauss, the chief executive of the climate center, used artificial intelligence to determine error rates and correct them.

    论文作者之一、气候中心研究员斯科特·A·库尔普(Scott a . Kulp)说,使用卫星进行的标准高程测量很难区分真实的地面高度与树木或建筑物的顶部。因此,他和气候中心的首席执行官本杰明·施特劳斯(Benjamin Strauss)使用人工智能来确定错误率并进行校正。 纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com

    In Thailand, more than 10 percent of residents now live on land that could be submerged by 2050, compared with just 1 percent based on earlier technology. Bangkok, the political and commercial capital, is particularly vulnerable.

    在泰国,超过10%的居民现在生活在可能在2050年被淹没的土地上,根据早期的技术,这个比例只有1%。政治和商业首都曼谷尤其岌岌可危。

    Loretta Hieber Girardet, a United Nations disaster relief officer and Bangkok resident, said climate change would put pressure on cities in several ways. Global warming is flooding more places and will force poor farmers to leave their land and look for work in cities.

    联合国减灾官员、曼谷居民洛蕾塔·希伯·吉拉德特(Loretta Hieber Girardet)表示,气候变化将在多个方面给城市带来压力。全球变暖淹没了更多的地方,而且还将迫使贫穷的农民离开土地到城市寻找工作。

    It's a terrible formula, she said.

    “这是一个可怕的公式,”她说。

    Shanghai is one of Asia's most important economic engines, and flooding is threatening to erode many cities in and around its heartland.

    上海是亚洲最重要的经济引擎之一,水患正威胁侵蚀它的心脏地带及其周边的许多城市。

    The discovery does not mean the end of these regions. New figures show that 110 million people already live below the high tide line, which strauss attributes to seawalls and other protective measures. Strauss says cities must invest heavily in such defenses, and quickly.

    该发现并不意味着这些地区的末日。新的数据显示,已经有1.1亿人生活在涨潮线以下的地方,斯特劳斯将其归因于海堤等防护措施。施特劳斯说,城市必须在这类防御措施上投入大量资金,而且必须尽快。

    But even with the investment, defensive measures can only go so far. Strauss cites the example of New Orleans, a city below sea level that suffered devastating damage in 2005 after large parts of its levees and other protective equipment failed during Hurricane Katrina. "How deep do we want to live in a bowl?" He asked.

    但即使投资到位,防御性措施也只能起到这么大的作用。斯特劳斯以新奥尔良为例,这座低于海平面的城市在2005年遭到了毁灭性的破坏,原因是在卡特琳娜飓风(Hurricane Katrina)来袭时,它大面积的防洪堤和其他防护设施都失灵了。“我们想住在口多深的碗里?”他问道。 纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com

    New projections show that large parts of mumbai, one of the world's largest cities and India's financial center, are in danger of being destroyed. The city center has a long history, and its core, once a series of islands, is particularly vulnerable.

    新的预测显示,世界上最大的城市之一、印度金融中心孟买的大部分地区有被摧毁的危险。这座城市的市中心拥有悠久的历史,其核心地带过去曾是一系列岛屿,如今格外脆弱。

    Dina Ionesco of the International Organization for Migration, an intergovernmental group that coordinates Migration and development action, said that overall, the research suggests that countries should now start preparing for more people to relocate within their own countries.

    协调移民和发展行动的政府间组织国际移民组织(International Organization for Migration)的黛娜·约内斯科(Dina Ionesco)说,总的来说,研究表明,各国现在应该开始为更多居民在国内重新安置做好准备。

    We've been trying to sound the alarm, Mr. Yonesko said. "We knew it was coming." She added that there is little modern precedent for migration on this scale.

    “我们一直试图敲响警钟,”约内斯科说。“我们知道它就要来了。”她还说,这种规模的人口流动在现代几乎没有先例。

    The disappearance of cultural heritage will also cause losses. The Egyptian city of Alexandria, founded by Alexander the great around 330 BC, could be submerged by rising waters.

    文化遗产的消失也会造成损失。埃及的亚历山大市由亚历山大大帝在公元前330年左右建立,它可能会被上升的海水淹没。

    Elsewhere, migration caused by rising sea levels could trigger or exacerbate regional conflicts.

    在其他地方,海平面上升引起的迁移可能引发或加剧区域冲突。

    By 2050, basra, Iraq's second largest city, could be flooded. If that happens, the impact could extend far beyond Iraq's borders, said John Castellaw, a retired Marine lieutenant general who served as chief of staff of the U.S. central command during the Iraq war.

    到2050年,伊拉克第二大城市巴士拉可能会被淹没。退役海军陆战队中将、曾在伊拉克战争期间担任美国中央司令部参谋长的约翰·卡斯特洛(John Castellaw)表示,如果这种情况真的发生,其影响可能会远远超出伊拉克的边界。

    Further loss of land from rising sea levels "could contribute to social and political instability in the region, which could lead to armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism," said Mr Castello, who is on the advisory board of the Center for Climate and Security, a research and lobby group in Washington.

    因为海平面上升而进一步损失土地,“可能促进该地区社会和政治不稳定,从而引发武装冲突,增加恐怖主义的可能性,”卡斯特洛表示,他目前是华盛顿研究和游说团体气候与安全中心(Center for Climate and Security)的顾问委员会成员。

    So this is much more than an environmental issue, he said. "This is a humanitarian and security issue, as well as a possible military issue."

    “所以这远远不只是一个环境问题,”他说。“这是人道主义和安全问题,以及可能的军事问题。”

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