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巴菲特在熊市投资的4条准则是什么?

  After 11 years,the bears are finally coming out of hibernation.

  11年后,熊终于从冬眠中醒来。

  The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8%on Thursday morning,officially entering a bear market,which is defined as a decline of 20%or more from a recent high.Just a month ago,the Dow was at its all-time peak.

  道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数周四上午下跌8%,正式进入熊市。熊市的定义是较近期高点下跌20%或更多。就在一个月前,道琼斯指数还处于历史最高点。

  The S&P 500 wasn't far behind,trading 24%below its record just three weeks ago,while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 19%in the same span of time.

  标准普尔500指数也紧随其后,较三周前创下的纪录低了24%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数同期下跌了19%。

  It's clear why investors are suddenly rattled.The novel coronavirus outbreak has spread from China around the world,forcing Italy into a lockdown,and disrupting daily life in the U.S.as well as much of the world.Festivals and conferences have been cancelled or put on hold,and sports fans are being told to stay home(games will be played in empty arenas).Americans are cancelling trips and working from home in order to avoid exposure to the virus.

  投资者突然惊慌失措的原因显而易见。这种新型冠状病毒已经从中国蔓延到世界各地,迫使意大利进入封锁状态,扰乱了美国和世界大部分地区的日常生活。节日和会议被取消或暂停,体育爱好者被告知呆在家里(比赛将在空旷的场地进行)。为了避免接触病毒,美国人取消了旅行的计划,在家工作。

  巴菲特在熊市投资的4条准则

  Warren Buffett.Image source:Motley Fool.

  Times like these can be nerve-racking for investors,who are jittery as their portfolios suddenly shrink and are wondering if an extended crash is in the offing.That's why it's an especially good time to consider the timeless wisdom of Warren Buffett,the Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B)CEO who's generally regarded as the greatest investor of all-time.At 89 years old,Buffett's seen it all in his investing career,and he's been generous about doling out advice along the way.Though the Oracle of Omaha has no formal guide for how to behave during a bear market,based on his writings and investing principles,we can put together a few of his investign rules and pieces of advice that would be worth heeding at times like these.

  对投资者来说,这样的时刻可能是伤脑筋的,投资组合突然缩水,让他们紧张不安,他们不知道会不会出现更严重的崩盘。这就是为什么现在是考虑巴菲特永恒智慧的好时机。巴菲特是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(NYSE:BRK.A)的首席执行官,他通常被认为是有史以来最伟大的投资者。现年89岁的巴菲特在他的投资生涯中目睹了这一切,他一直慷慨地提供建议。尽管(基于他的著作和投资原则)这位“奥马哈先知”没有关于如何在熊市中表现的正式指南,但我们可以把他的一些调查规则和建议整合在一起,在这种时候,这些建议是值得注意的。

  1."Be greedy when others are fearful"

  1.“别人恐惧我贪婪

  Perhaps Buffett's best known quote,the wisdom of this aphorism is in its simplicity.Buffett knows the best way to invest is to zig when others zag.

  这也许是巴菲特最著名的名言,这句格言的智慧在于它的简单。巴菲特知道最好的投资方式是在别人困难的时候快速前进。

  Now,of course,investors are probably more fearful now than they've been in a decade.There may be good reason for those fears,but a number of stocks have already lost more than half of their value,setting up potential bargains as investors are selling for near-term concerns.While the coronavirus could hammer the economy over the next few months and even lead to a recession,the long-term risk of the virus seems almost zero.Buffett is a famous cheerleader of the American economy and knows that the stock market has survived past crises including the 1919 Spanish Flu epidemic,the Great Depression,World War II,9/11,and the 2008 financial crisis among others.

  当然,现在的投资者可能比过去10年更恐惧。这些担忧或许有很好的理由,但在投资者出于短期担忧而抛售之际,许多股票已经损失了一半以上的价值,这可能会带来一些逢低买进的机会。虽然这种冠状病毒可能会在未来几个月里重创经济,甚至导致经济衰退,但这种病毒的长期风险似乎几乎为零。巴菲特是美国经济的著名啦啦队长,他知道股票市场在过去的危机中幸存了下来,包括1919年的西班牙流感疫情、大萧条、二战、9/11和2008年的金融危机等等。

  By this time next year,events like South by Southwest and the Coachella Music Festival will be almost certainly held as normal.Americans will return to their usual routines,doing things like that they're currently hesitant to do like taking vacations and eating out.Life will eventually return to normal.

  到明年的这个时候,像South By Southwest和Coachella音乐节这样的活动几乎肯定会照常举行。美国人会回到他们的日常生活中去,做一些他们现在犹豫不决的事情,比如度假和外出就餐。生活最终会恢复正常的。

  2.Keep some dry powder ready

  2.持有现金

  In recent years,Buffett has lamented the high valuations of stocks and privately held companies and told investors he's been unable to find well-priced companies worth buying.Berkshire's last major acquisition came in 2015 with its$32 billion purchase of Precision Castparts.

  近年来,巴菲特一直对股票和私人持股公司的高估值感到遗憾,并对投资者说,他一直找不到价格合理、值得买进的公司。2015年,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司以320亿美元收购了精密铸件公司。

  As a result,Berkshire is now sitting on roughly$125 billion in cash and short-term investments that can be readily deployed as bargains emerge on the market.You can't be greedy when others are fearful,after all,if you don't have any money to invest.Buffett capitalized similarly during the financial crisis when he had about$38 billion in cash and made big,well-timed investments in Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.During September and October of 2008,he made$15 billion in investments.

  因此,伯克希尔目前坐拥约1,250亿美元的现金和短期投资,这些资金可以在市场上出现便宜货时随时使用。毕竟,如果你没有钱去投资,别人害怕的时候你也不会贪婪。巴菲特在金融危机期间也进行了类似的投资,当时他拥有约380亿美元现金,并在恰当的时机大举投资高盛和美国银行。在2008年9月和10月期间,他投资了150亿美元。

  The Oracle of Omaha also likes to say,"Only when the tide goes do you see who's swimming naked."With more than$100 billion in cash to work with,you can be assured Buffett will never be caught investing with his pants down.

  这位奥马哈先知还喜欢说:“只有当潮水退去,你才会知道谁在裸泳。”有超过1000亿美元的现金可以使用,你可以放心,巴菲特永远不会被抓到裸泳。

  3.Invest for the long term

  3.做长线投资

  Another well-known Buffett quote is,"Our favorite holding period is forever."Buffett thinks of owning stocks as owning businesses.He's not interested in trading paper to make a quick buck.He's looking for lasting companies that will grow over decades,compounding their returns.

  巴菲特的另一句名言是:“我们最喜欢的持有期限是永远。”巴菲特认为拥有股票就像拥有企业一样。他对交易票据来赚快钱不感兴趣。他在寻找能够持续发展几十年的公司,增加他们的回报。

  In a bear market,investors need to think similarly.One rule of thumb with buying stocks is not to invest any money that you plan to use in the next ten years.That's because a shock like the coronavirus can wipe out short-term gains,but over the long term the stock market has demonstrated an unmatched ability to deliver meaningful capital appreciation.Historically,the S&P 500 has returned about 10%annually,and that includes several bear markets,recessions,and other crises and black swan events.

  在熊市中,投资者也需要这样想。购买股票的一个经验法则是,不要把你计划在未来10年里使用的钱拿去投资。这是因为像冠状病毒这样的冲击可以抹去短期收益,但从长期来看,股市表现出了无与伦比的能力,能够带来有意义的资本增值。从历史上看,标准普尔500指数的年回报率约为10%,其中包括几次熊市、衰退和其他危机以及黑天鹅事件。

  4.Buy stocks that can withstand this kind of shock

  4.购买能够承受这种冲击的股票

  It's no secret what kind of stocks Buffett likes.He prefers reliably profitable companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable competitive advantages,which he calls economic moats.Buffett is a conservative value investor,and he wants stocks that will deliver predictable returns.For instance,he's long been a fan of insurance companies as Berkshire owns a number of them,including GEICO.Americans need auto insurance even in tough times,and those premiums give Berkshire a steady cash flow to invest in stocks.Buffett also likes enduring consumer brands like Coca-Cola,and more recently,Apple.Coca-Cola has been a leader in beverages for a century,not just because of its well-known brands but also because of its global distribution network.Apple,meanwhile,has built an ecosystem in consumer electronics that will be difficult to dislodge.Both companies are highly profitable.

  巴菲特喜欢什么样的股票已经不是什么秘密了。他更喜欢可靠盈利的公司,这些公司拥有强大的资产负债表和可持续的竞争优势,他称之为经济护城河。巴菲特是一个保守的价值投资者,他希望股票能够带来可预测的回报。比如,他长期以来一直是保险公司的拥趸,因为伯克希尔拥有很多保险公司,其中包括GEICO。美国人即使在经济困难时期也需要汽车保险,而这些保费让伯克希尔有了稳定的现金流来投资股票。巴菲特还喜欢可口可乐(Coca-Cola)等经久不衰的消费品牌,以及最近的苹果。一个世纪以来,可口可乐一直是饮料行业的领导者,不仅因为其知名品牌,还因为其全球分销网络。与此同时,苹果在消费电子产品领域建立了一个难以撼动的生态系统。这两家公司的利润都很高。

  As an eternal optimist about the American economy and the stock market,Buffett would likely remind investors that for net buyers of stocks,a bear market is a good thing as stocks become cheaper.Though it can be scary to see your investments in freefall,especially amid the broader uncertainty and health scare around the coronavirus,it's worth remembering Buffett's thoughts on the current situation.

  作为一个对美国经济和股市永远乐观的人,巴菲特可能会提醒投资者,对于股票的净买家来说,熊市是一件好事,因为股票变得更便宜了。虽然看到自己的投资一落千丈可能会让人感到害怕,尤其是身处冠状病毒的不确定性和健康恐慌的大环境下,但值得记住巴菲特对当前形势的看法。

  In a recent CNBC interview,the Berkshire chief said,"The real question is:Has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?"Despite the uncertainty around the coronavirus,Buffett,like most investors out there I think,would answer with resounding"no".

  在最近接受CNBC采访时,这位伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官表示:“真正的问题是:美国企业10年或20年的前景在过去24小时或48小时内发生了变化吗?”尽管冠状病毒存在不确定性,但我认为,巴菲特和大多数投资者一样,会响亮地回答“不”。

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