Coronavirus lockdowns across the globe should not be completely lifted until a vaccine for the disease is found,according to a study based on China's outbreak published in medical journal The Lancet.
China's draconian restrictions on daily life appear to have halted the first wave of Covid-19 across much of the country,but the researchers used mathematical modeling to show that premature lifting of measures could result in a sweeping second wave of infection.
Authorities ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan in Hubei province on Wednesday,as the city at the original epicenter of the coronavirus crisis emerges from the deadly outbreak that is now raging across the globe.Some restrictions will remain in place,however,with officials conscious of the risk as trains and tourist sites were packed across the country.
"While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels,without herd immunity against Covid-19,cases could easily resurge as businesses,factory operations,and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing,particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as Covid-19 continues to spread globally,"said Professor Joseph T Wu from the University of Hong Kong,who co-led the research,in a Wednesday news release.
香港大学的Joseph T Wu教授在星期三的新闻发布会上说：“虽然这些控制措施似乎已将感染人数降到非常低得数目，但如果没有对新冠病毒的群体免疫，随着企业、工厂复工和学校逐步复学，社会融合度增加，病例可能很容易再次出现，尤其是Covid-19继续从海外输入病例的风险越来越大。“<-->纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com<-->
He cautioned that the speed of infection would rise unless governments ensured restrictions were lifted slowly and transmission was closely monitored.
"Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioral change are likely to be maintained for some time,proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available."
The research could be critical as countries across the world--some which have only had lockdowns in place for a few weeks--consider how best to ease restrictions to get their economies moving again.Getting it wrong could lead to further outbreaks and new restrictions,the study found,and could be catastrophic for health services and economies.