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新的研究警告:研发出冠状病毒疫苗前,不应该完全解除封锁

  Coronavirus lockdowns across the globe should not be completely lifted until a vaccine for the disease is found,according to a study based on China's outbreak published in medical journal The Lancet.

  发表在医学杂志《柳叶刀》上的一项基于中国爆发的研究表明,在发现这种疾病的疫苗之前,对全球范围内的冠状病毒封锁不应该完全解除。

  中国对日常生活的严格限制似乎已经阻止了全国大部分地区的第一波新冠病毒的传播

  China's draconian restrictions on daily life appear to have halted the first wave of Covid-19 across much of the country,but the researchers used mathematical modeling to show that premature lifting of measures could result in a sweeping second wave of infection.

  中国对日常生活的严格限制似乎已经阻止了全国大部分地区的第一波新冠病毒的传播,但研究人员利用数学模型表明,过早取消封锁措施可能导致第二波感染。

  Authorities ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan in Hubei province on Wednesday,as the city at the original epicenter of the coronavirus crisis emerges from the deadly outbreak that is now raging across the globe.Some restrictions will remain in place,however,with officials conscious of the risk as trains and tourist sites were packed across the country.

  当局于周三结束了对湖北省武汉市长达76天的封锁,因为位于冠状病毒危机最初震中的武汉市从目前肆虐全球的致命疫情中脱离出来。不过,由于火车和旅游景点遍布全国各地,官员们意识到了这一风险,将继续实施某些限制措施。

  "While these control measures appear to have reduced the number of infections to very low levels,without herd immunity against Covid-19,cases could easily resurge as businesses,factory operations,and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing,particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as Covid-19 continues to spread globally,"said Professor Joseph T Wu from the University of Hong Kong,who co-led the research,in a Wednesday news release.

  香港大学的Joseph T Wu教授在星期三的新闻发布会上说:“虽然这些控制措施似乎已将感染人数降到非常低得数目,但如果没有对新冠病毒的群体免疫,随着企业、工厂复工和学校逐步复学,社会融合度增加,病例可能很容易再次出现,尤其是Covid-19继续从海外输入病例的风险越来越大。“<-->纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com<-->

  各国政府确保缓慢解除限制,密切监测传播,否则感染速度会加快

  He cautioned that the speed of infection would rise unless governments ensured restrictions were lifted slowly and transmission was closely monitored.

  他提醒说,除非各国政府确保缓慢解除限制,密切监测传播,否则感染速度会加快。

  "Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioral change are likely to be maintained for some time,proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available."

  “虽然人与人之间保持距离和活动方式改变等控制政策可能会维持一段时间,但在有效疫苗普及之前,主动在恢复经济活动和保持病毒感染人数低于1之间取得平衡可能是最好的策略。”

  The research could be critical as countries across the world--some which have only had lockdowns in place for a few weeks--consider how best to ease restrictions to get their economies moving again.Getting it wrong could lead to further outbreaks and new restrictions,the study found,and could be catastrophic for health services and economies.

  这项研究可能是至关重要的,因为全世界的一些国家,都在考虑如何最好地放松限制,甚至其中一些国家只实施了几个星期的封锁,好让它们的经济再次运转。研究发现,如果放松限制后出错了,则可能会导致进一步的疫情爆发并需采取新的限制措施,对医疗服务和经济的影响可能是灾难性的。
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