您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

普京对乌克兰保持沉默令外界费解

更新时间:2014-2-28 19:10:35 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Growing Crisis in Its Backyard Snares Russia
普京对乌克兰保持沉默令外界费解

MOSCOW — Despite repeated vows not to interfere or intervene, President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia has now found itself more deeply ensnared than ever in Ukraine’s worsening political crisis, facing appeals to support the country’s ethnic Russians, provide haven for its deposed president and perhaps even undertake a military response. The question is whether he intended it that way.

莫斯科——尽管弗拉基米尔·V·普京总统(Vladimir V. Putin)治下的俄罗斯反复起誓,不会插手或干涉日益恶化的乌克兰政治危机,但该国越来越深陷其中。有呼声请求,俄罗斯支持乌克兰的俄罗斯族,并为下台的总统提供庇护,乃至采取军事回应。但悬念在于,普京是否有这样做的意愿?

Mr. Putin himself has made no public remarks on the turmoil in Ukraine since President Viktor F. Yanukovych’s flight from Kiev last week. That coincided with the end of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, which officials here have celebrated as proof of the emergence of a new, powerful and proud Russia nearly a quarter century after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

乌克兰总统维克托·F·亚努科维奇(Viktor F. Yanukovych)逃离基辅以来,普京本人一直没有就该国的动荡公开发表言论。此事恰逢索契冬奥会闭幕,俄罗斯官员都在赞颂本届冬奥会,把它当成苏联解体近四分之一个世纪后,一个强大而自豪的新俄罗斯崛起的证明。

Mr. Putin’s silence has resulted in confusion over Russia’s policy, even as the crisis in Ukraine has moved closer to Russia’s own border and raised concerns about Ukraine’s geopolitical and economic impact on its neighbor. Russia could stand to lose what it considers a place that is not only within its sphere of influence but part of its political, social and historical identity. For now, Mr. Putin’s strategy for retaining Russia’s influence in a country where the Kremlin has profound interests, from its largest foreign military base to gas pipelines that fuel its economy, remains unknown and full of risks. Even so, events are subtly forcing Moscow’s hand.

普京的沉默让外界对俄罗斯的政策摸不着头脑。此时此刻,乌克兰危机已蔓延到更靠近俄罗斯边境线的地方,并引发了人们对乌克兰施加给邻国的地缘政治与经济影响的担心。俄罗斯有可能会眼睁睁看着自己失去乌克兰,而这片地方,不仅被它视为自家后院,还是其政治、社会与历史认同的一部分。克里姆林宫在乌克兰有着深远的利益,比如规模最大的海外军事基地,以及为其经济提供动力的天然气管道。目前看来,普京维持俄罗斯对乌克兰影响力的策略还不得而知,也充满着各种风险。尽管如此,事态发展微妙地迫使莫斯科作出回应。

Mr. Yanukovych’s appeal for Russia “to secure my personal safety,” and reports that he will hold a news conference in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Friday, have made it clear that the Kremlin has quietly provided at least tacit assistance to a humiliated leader who has been abandoned even by his own political supporters.

亚努科维奇请求俄罗斯“保障我的人身安全”。还有报道称,他将于周五在俄罗斯南部城市顿河畔的罗斯托夫召开新闻发布会。这些迹象表明,对这名颜面扫地、甚至已经被自己的盟友抛弃的领导人,克里姆林宫至少是暗中提供了援助。

The seizure of the regional Parliament building in Crimea by masked gunmen vowing loyalty to Russia, and not Ukraine, has renewed fears that Mr. Putin could be provoked into a military intervention like the one in 2008 when Russian troops poured into Georgia to defend a breakaway region, South Ossetia, that it now recognizes as an independent country.

夺取了克里米亚地区议会大楼的蒙面持枪人员发誓效忠俄罗斯,而不是乌克兰。此举让人再次担心,普京或许会被激怒,采取2008年那样的军事干预行动。当时,俄罗斯大举出兵格鲁吉亚,以保卫分离的南奥塞梯地区。俄罗斯目前承认此地为独立国家。

Russian officials have dismissed such fears as absurd, but at the same time, Mr. Putin ordered a surprise military exercise involving 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s doorstep that was clearly intended as a palpable warning about Russia’s preparedness. It prompted warnings in return from NATO and the United States that Russia should do nothing provocative and respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

俄罗斯官方坚称此类担忧纯属荒谬,但与此同时,普京下令,在乌克兰门口进行了出人预料的军事演习,规模达15万人。此举显然意在发出明确的警告,彰显俄罗斯准备充分。它还促使北约和美国做出回应,警告俄罗斯不要采取挑衅之举并应尊重乌克兰的领土完整。

Mr. Putin has a number of options to influence affairs in Ukraine short of an armed intervention. Ukraine’s economy is entwined with that of Russia, which is by far its greatest trading partner, and Ukraine’s heavy industry is hugely dependent on Russian gas. And the Kremlin can inflame separatist tensions almost at will, if it so desires, destabilizing the country. Perhaps Mr. Putin’s most effective weapon, though, is time, sitting back and watching as the West takes ownership of an economy on the brink of collapse.

即使不动用军事干预,普京也有不少选择来影响乌克兰的国内事务。乌克兰的经济与俄罗斯息息相关,乌克兰的重工业严重依赖俄罗斯的天然气。而且,只要它愿意,克林姆林宫随时可以起乌克兰的分离主义矛盾,让该国陷入动荡。不过,普京最为有效的武器或许是时间,作壁上观,让西方挑起濒临崩溃的乌克兰经济这个重担。

Russia’s Foreign Ministry released a statement on Thursday complaining that an agreement brokered by three European foreign ministers only a week ago was not being honored. It insisted that the accord, which would leave Mr. Yanukovych in the presidency until new elections in December, serve as the basis of a negotiated agreement, even as the Europeans and the United States moved to recognize the legitimacy of the new interim government that was formed after Mr. Yanukovych’s escape from Kiev.

俄罗斯外交部于周四发表了一则声明,指责由欧洲三国外长一周之前促成的协议没有得到尊重。声明中坚持要把该协定作为一项谈判协议的基础,尽管欧洲和美国此时已做出表示,承认了在亚努科维奇逃离基辅后组建的新临时政府的合法性。根据该协定,亚努科维奇应该留任到今年12月。

“We are convinced that only such a constitutional framework can ensure the interests of all political forces and all regions of Ukraine,” the ministry’s statement said.

俄罗斯外交部的声明称,“我们确信,只有这样的宪法框架才能保障乌克兰各政治力量和各地区的利益。”

In essence, the statement suggested that Russia still recognized Mr. Yanukovych as the country’s leader, though no officials have explicitly said so, even though they have denounced the new interim leaders as radicals riding to power in an armed fascist coup.

这则声明实质上表示俄罗斯依然认定亚努科维奇是乌克兰的领导人,只不过还没有官员明言这一点——尽管他们已经谴责了临时政府的新领导人,称他们是通过武装法西斯政变上台的激进分子。

In the absence of a clear statement of Russia’s intent, the perception of its strategy has been shaped by rumors, by strident coverage on state news media and by statements of Russian lawmakers vowing solidarity with Ukraine’s ethnic Russians and questioning whether Crimea, which the Soviet Union ceded to Ukraine in 1954, should rightfully be Russia’s.

鉴于目前缺乏阐明俄罗斯意图的明确声明,外界对俄方战略的看法只能取决于流言、官方新闻媒体的强硬报道和俄罗斯议会的声明。议员们立誓支持乌克兰境内的俄罗斯族人,并提出了一项质疑:苏联在1954年划归乌克兰的克里米亚理应是俄罗斯的一部分。

Three high-profile members of Russia’s lower house of Parliament arrived in Crimea on Thursday, visiting the city that is home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. “I arrived in Sevastopol to support residents of Crimea,” Nikolai Valuev, a former boxing champion who was elected to the Parliament in 2011, wrote on Twitter. “Friends, Russia is with you.”

三名备受瞩目的俄罗斯杜马议员已于周四抵达克里米亚,访问这座俄罗斯黑海舰队(Black Sea Fleet)的驻地城市。2011年当选议员的前拳击冠军尼古拉·瓦卢耶夫(Nikolai Valuev)在Twitter上写道,“我到塞瓦斯托波尔来是为了支持克里米亚的民众。朋友们,俄罗斯和你们在一起。”

The military exercise that began in earnest on Thursday added an ominous element of volatility. Aleksandr Golts, an independent military analyst in Moscow, said that the exercise could theoretically — and he emphasized the word theoretically — disguise a more general mobilization of Russia’s military in case a conflict erupted over Ukraine.

于周四郑重启动的军事演习给局势增添了不详的动荡因素。驻莫斯科的独立军事分析师亚历山大·戈尔茨(Aleksandr Golts)说,演习从理论上说——他强调了理论上这个词——可以掩盖俄罗斯军队为预防乌克兰爆发冲突而采取的更全面的军事部署。

“In my view it’s very bad, even if there are no plans to use the military, that maneuvers are being held with the goal of testing the nerves of others,” he said.

他说,“依我看,这糟透了,即使他们不打算动用军队,举行演习也依然带有挑战其他各方神经的目的。”

To critics, especially in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s hand is seen in many of the most disturbing turns in the unfolding situation, including the visits by Russian lawmakers; reports of handing out Russian passports to Crimea’s citizens, as happened in Georgia’s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and the mysterious seizure of the Parliament building in Crimea. They see the downward spiraling of events as evidence that Mr. Putin intends to splinter the country and retake Crimea as Russian territory.

对评论人士,尤其是乌克兰的评论人士来说,局势持续发展之时,在许多最令人不安的转折点的背后,能看到克林姆林宫的操控,其中包括:俄罗斯议员的访问;给克里米亚民众发放俄罗斯护照的报道,在格鲁吉亚的分裂地区南奥塞梯和阿伯卡茨就曾上演过类似的一幕;以及克里米亚议会大楼被神秘占领一事。他们把类似事件每况愈下的发展视为一种迹象,它表明普京意图分裂乌克兰,重新把克里米亚并入俄罗斯版图。

“We’re not interfering,” Mr. Peskov, the president’s spokesman, said on Thursday. “We’re standing on this position.”

俄罗斯总统发言人佩斯科夫(Peskov)在周四表示,“我们不会干涉。我们会秉持这一立场。”

“本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表