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中国即将成为第一旅游大国

A Look at Global Travel Trends
中国即将成为第一旅游大国

During a prolonged and grinding recession, the travel industry was one of the few sectors to bounce back early and help buoy the global economy. Last year, the industry accounted for 9.5 percent of the global economy (nearly $7 trillion) and employed 266 million people — about 9 percent of the global work force.

经历了漫长煎熬的衰退期,旅游业是少数几个早早反弹、有助于重振全球经济的行业之一。去年,旅游业占全球经济的9.5%(近7万亿美元),拥有2.66亿从业人员,约占全球工作人数的9%。

Below are excerpts from a conversation with David Scowsill of Britain, president and chief executive of the World Travel and Tourism Council, on how countries can maximize the economic impact of travel and tourism.

下面是与世界旅游理事会(World Travel and Tourism Council)的总裁兼首席执行官,英国的大卫·斯考希尔(David Scowsill)的谈话节选,关于各国如何将旅游业的经济收益最大化。

Q. How has the global tourism market changed over the last five years?

问:过去五年间,全球旅游市场有什么改变?

A. Whether in a recession or a growth period, the travel and tourism industry is extremely robust. It grows between 1 and 1 1/2 percentage points faster than the world economy.

答:不管是在经济衰退期还是成长期,旅游业一直都十分繁荣,比世界经济增长率高出1%到1.5%。

Going into the recession, post Lehman Brothers, pieces of the industry suffered quite badly, particularly the hotel industry, because the demand for investment dried up, and during that time supply and demand were also out of kilter with the airlines. But we’ve cruised through successfully with four straight years of growth, and at this point we’re predicting global growth for the industry to be around 4.3 percent for 2014.

在衰退期,经历了雷曼兄弟公司倒闭之后,旅游业内有些领域损失惨重,特别是酒店行业,因为对投资的需求枯竭了,在那段时期,航空业内的供给状况也不大理想。但我们还是成功地实现了四年的持续增长,现在,我们预测在2014年,旅游业的全球增长率将在4.3%左右。

Which countries were behind the growth these last four years?

纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com/

问:过去四年来,哪些国家为增长率做出了贡献呢?

Much of it is coming out of Asia. Over time, the balance has gently started to move away from the U.S. and Europe. We’re forecasting that China will overtake the U.S. in 2027 as the world’s largest travel and tourism economy.

答:大多数增长点来自亚洲。随着时间推移,重心开始慢慢偏离美国和欧洲。我们预测,到2027年,中国将赶上美国,成为世界最大的旅游经济体。

Why is that?

问:为什么?

Ernst & Young estimates that by 2030, nearly one billion people in China could enter into the middle class and have a disposable income that allows them to travel domestically and abroad. Ten years ago their government singled out tourism as a key pillar of economic growth, and as a result, they have invested well ahead of the curve in high-speed trains, hotel complexes and airports to absorb growth within the middle class. In fact, right now they are busy building 69 airports around the country, so that in the future no person in the country will be more than a 90-minute drive from an airport.

答:安永(Ernst & Young)公司预测,到2030年,中国将有近十亿人口进入中产阶级,拥有可用于国内外旅游的可支配收入。十年前,中国政府选择旅游业作为经济发展的关键支柱,他们在经济衰退曲线之前便开始投资高铁、综合酒店和机场,吸收中产阶级的收入增长。如今,他们正忙于在全国修建69个机场,未来全国所有人距离机场的车程都在90分钟以内。

And this won’t be limited to domestic travel. Over the last three years, the amount of people traveling outbound from China has nearly doubled to 100 million. That figure is forecast to rise to 200 million by 2020.

纽约时报中英文网 www.qqenglish.com

还不仅仅是国内旅游。在过去三年里,中国做境外游的人数增长了一倍,达到一亿。预计到2020年,这个数字将达到两亿。

Which countries are currently being visited most?

问:目前哪个国家的游客最多?

Statistically, around the world it’s still France, United States, China and Spain, in that order. France is still way out in the lead with 83 million visitors in 2012; in the same year, the United States had 67 million and China and Spain both had 57 million.

答:据统计,全球游客最多的国家依次仍是法国、美国、中国和西班牙。2012年,法国接待了8300万名游客,仍然遥遥领先,同年美国接待了6700万名游客,中国和西班牙各自接待了5700万名游客。

What steps can a country take to help its tourism industry grow?

问:为发展旅游业,一个国家应当采取什么措施呢?

One of the major inhibitors of the travel industry is that 70 percent of people who travel still need to go to an embassy in order to visit another country.

答:限制旅游的一个重要因素就是,70%旅游者仍然需要到使馆去办理出境游手续。

The U.K.’s inbound tourism has been static since 2005 and a lot of that’s down to visa facilitation. Say you want to go on holiday in Europe. You can get one of the Schengen visas that allow you to visit all of the 25 participating countries on the Continent. But if you want to go to the U.K., even for a few days, you have to queue up at the consulate, pay money and go through an interview process to get a second visa.

英国游自2005年起一直停滞不前,很大程度上要归咎于签证手续。如果你想在假日游览欧洲,可以去办理申根签证,它允许你访问欧洲的25个申根国家。但如果你想去英国,就算只呆几天,也得在领馆外面排队等待,交钱、与签证官面谈,再办一份签证。

The opposite of that equation would be Mexico. If you have already fought your way through the U.S. system to get a visa, that’s perfectly acceptable for them and they’ll allow you to come without having to go through the process again. There are pockets of the world that have made great progress. Countries in Latin America and Asia are starting to offer common visas, which ultimately might progress into Schengen type models.

墨西哥则完全与此相反。如果你成功得到了美国签证,就会被墨西哥完全接受,他们会允许你入境,完全不必再办一次手续。世界上有很多小国家在这方面取得了巨大的进展。拉丁美洲和亚洲的一些国家开始提供普通签证,它们正在像申根模式的方向发展。

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