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“双十一”购物狂欢折射贸易战影响与中国经济转型压力

    On the day of “Double Eleven” (November 11), the transaction volume of its e-commerce platform announced by Alibaba reached 268.4 billion yuan, setting a new record.

    “双十一”(11月11日)这一天,阿里巴巴公布的旗下电商平台的交易额达到2684亿元,再次刷新纪录。

    In the context of the Sino-US trade war, the American agricultural products that had been outstanding in the “Double Eleven” in previous years did not enter the Chinese shopping cart on a large scale. And the Chinese have increased their efforts to “buy and buy”, can China help China boost domestic demand and complete economic transformation?

    在中美贸易战背景下,往年“双十一”表现亮眼的美国农产品,这次没能大规模进入中国人的购物车。而中国人加大力度“买买买”,能否帮助中国提振内需,完成经济动力转型?

    American Cherry becomes "Chilean Cherry"

    “美国樱桃”变成“智利樱桃”

    In the "Double Eleven", if you search for "American Cherry" in Taobao or Tmall, the result is all Chilean cherries. One of the reasons is that Chilean cherries mature later than American cherries, and in the “Double Eleven” season. However, even the US cherry in the current season is still facing a disadvantage in the Chinese market.

    在“双十一”,如果在淘宝或者天猫搜索“美国樱桃”,出来的结果全部是智利的樱桃。原因之一是智利樱桃比美国樱桃成熟更晚,在“双十一”更当季。不过,即使今年当季的美国樱桃在中国市场依然遭遇不利。

    As the Sino-US trade war escalated, China’s retaliatory tariffs soon extended to American fruit. According to Reuters news, the US exports of Chinese cherries fell from 1,505 tons in May 2017 to 337 tons in the same period of 2018. This year, it fell further to 187 tons, shrinking to nearly 90%.

    随着中美贸易战不断升级,中国的报复性关税很快延及美国水果。根据路透社消息,美国出口中国的樱桃从2017年5月的1505吨,跌到2018年同期的337吨,今年进一步跌至187吨,缩水接近九成。

    In the previous year, the popular American snake fruit on the “Double Eleven” was searched in Taobao. The first sales volume was the apple of Gansu, the origin of China. The actual sales from the United States were flat, and most of the sales were dozens. In 2015, “Double Eleven” sold 1 million American Washington Plus Apples in 24 hours.

    往年“双十一”上颇受欢迎的美国蛇果,在淘宝搜索,销量第一的却是原产地中国甘肃的苹果,真正从美国进口的则销量平平,大部分月销几十笔。而在2015年 “双十一”,24小时曾卖出100万颗美国华盛顿加力苹果。

    Before the trade war, American fruit has always been a "star" on Taobao and Tmall. On September 19, 2014, Alibaba was listed in the United States. Ali invited eight ringers. The only non-Chinese person was the cherry fruit farmer Pete Verbrugge in Washington State.

    在贸易战前,美国水果在淘宝和天猫上一直是“明星级”的存在。2014年9月19日,阿里巴巴在美国上市,阿里邀请八位敲钟人中,唯一的一名非中国籍人士就是华盛顿州的樱桃果农皮特·维尔布鲁格。

    Five years ago, Pete Verbrugge's fruit company sold 108 tons of American cherries in a pre-sale, equivalent to one day's sales of 1,000 large and medium-sized supermarkets.

    五年前,皮特·维尔布鲁格的水果公司就在一次预售中卖掉108吨美国樱桃,相当于1000个大中型超市一天的销量。

纽约时报中英文网 www.qqenglish.com

    Since then, Alibaba has partnered with Northwest Cherry Growers to promote American cherries and make China the largest overseas market for the latter.

    此后,阿里巴巴还和美国西北樱桃种植者协会(Northwest Cherry Growers)合作推广美国樱桃,并使中国成为后者最大的海外市场。

    American fruit farmers quickly became interested in the Chinese market, but they soon suffered losses. Thurlby, president of the Northwest Cherry Growers Association of the United States, said in an interview with the US media that in addition to the direct losses caused by the decline in exports to China, the contraction of the Chinese market has put pressure on all other markets, and prices are generally affected.

    美国果农对中国市场快速产生兴趣,但很快因此蒙受损失。美国西北樱桃种植者协会主席瑟尔拜(Thurlby)接受美国媒体采访称,除了对华出口减少带来的直接损失,中国市场收缩对其他所有市场都造成压力,价格普遍受到影响。

    Apple has also suffered heavy losses. According to the US Apple Association, total US apple exports in the 2018-19 season have fallen by 27% year-on-year.

    苹果同样遭受重创。美国苹果协会(US Apple Association)数据显示,2018-19季,美国苹果总出口量已同比下降27%。

    Belt and Road Cherry

    “一带一路”樱桃

    Under China’s retaliatory tariffs on the United States, the tax rate of American fruits has risen to 50% after many adjustments, and tariffs such as cherries and apples are as high as 60%.

    中国对美方的报复性关税下,美国水果的税率经多次调整大多已升至50%,樱桃和苹果等关税更是高达60%。

    Under high tariffs, imported fruits from other countries appear to be more competitive, and the vacated market is occupied by what China calls the “Belt and Road” countries.

    高关税下,其他国家的进口水果就显得更有竞争力,空出来的市场被中国所说的“一带一路”国家占据。

    In addition to the Chilean cherries that have been selling well in China in the past two years, in May of this year, the cherry of Uzbekistan in Central Asian countries accounted for nearly half of the total imports of cherries in China.

    除了近两年在中国热销的智利樱桃外,今年5月,中亚国家乌兹别克斯坦的樱桃占据了中国进口樱桃总量的近一半。

    In June and July, cherries from Turkey's Izmir and Afyon provinces landed in China. The former tested 10 tons of water for the first time, while the latter signed an order of 1,500 tons with Chinese importers. In addition, the cherries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also entered China.

    蛐蛐英语 www.qqenglish.com

    6月和7月,土耳其伊兹密尔和阿菲永两个省的樱桃分别登陆中国。前者首次试水10吨,后者则与中国进口商签署1500吨的订单。此外,塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的樱桃也进入中国。

    China also seems to be interested in helping the fruits of these countries to replace the United States, such as relaxing the pest control standards, from less than ten days of refrigeration, to only a few hours of fumigation.

    中国似乎也在有意帮助这些国家的水果取代美国,比如放宽防虫标准,从十几天冷藏,降低到只须数小时熏蒸即可。

    These countries are regarded by China as a country covered by their “Belt and Road” initiative. China hopes to increase trade with these countries through the establishment of transportation and other infrastructure. However, some skeptics also reminded that China has invested heavily in infrastructure through a large amount of borrowing, so that the “Belt and Road” countries are unable to repay, and they are trapped in debt traps, and have to give up the use or management rights of infrastructure to China.

    这些国家被中国视为其“一带一路”倡议所覆盖的国家,中国希望通过建立交通等基础设施,加大与这些国家的贸易往来。但也有质疑者提醒,中国通过大量借贷投入基建,使“一带一路”国家无力偿还,陷入债务陷阱,只好让渡基础设施的使用或经营权给中国。

    The challenge behind the “Double Eleven”

    再创佳绩的“双十一”背后的挑战

    The total turnover of “Double Eleven” was RMB 268.4 billion. Although it has once again set a staggering record, the growth rate has slowed sharply in the past two years.

    “双十一”成交总额为2684亿元人民币,虽然再次刷新本就令人咋舌的纪录,但最近两年增幅已大幅放缓。

    Compared with the previous year's doubled growth rate, this year's growth rate was 25.7%, a slight decrease from last year.

    相比往年动辄翻倍的增幅,今年增幅为25.7%,相比去年小幅下降。

    Analysts said that sales growth was less than last year, as China's overall e-commerce industry slowed as China's economic growth rate hit a record low.

    分析师称,销售额增幅不及去年,因在中国经济增速或创下历史低位之际,中国整体电商行业放缓。

    But including e-commerce, China still has high hopes for boosting consumption.

    但包括电商在内,中国对提振消费依然寄予厚望。

    Due to various factors such as slowing global demand, capacity transfer, and trade wars, exporting this carriage is no longer the main driver of the Chinese economy. And China's high government debt also makes it possible to increase infrastructure investment and bring systemic risks.

    全球需求放缓、产能转移,以及贸易战等多种因素影响,出口这架马车已经不是中国经济的主要驱动力。而中国高企的政府负债也使加大基建投资可能带来系统性风险。

    Therefore, consumption has become the focus of China's stimulus. Reuters quoted an expert from the China National Information Center as saying that in addition to the stabilization of consumption this year, industrial added value and investment are all falling, and the downward pressure on the economy has only increased. Therefore, expanding domestic demand to stimulate consumption has become the focus of current policies.

    因此,消费成为中国刺激的重点。路透社援引中国国家信息中心一位专家称,今年除消费回稳外,工业增加值、投资等都在回落,经济下行压力只增不减,因此扩大内需刺激消费就成为当下政策的重点。

    However, China faces a special “urban-rural duality” structure. Urban residents have become the main consumers of consumption. A large number of rural residents are still at low income levels. Their consumption needs have not been released, and further growth in consumption is likely to enter the bottleneck period.

    然而,中国面临特殊的“城乡二元”结构,城镇居民成为消费主力,大量农村居民还处于低收入水平,他们的消费需求没有被释放出来,消费的进一步增长很可能进入瓶颈期。

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