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朝鲜鲜为人知的军事威胁:生物武器

  Washington - the deadliest weapon in history by weight is not a nuclear weapon, but a biological one. A gallon of anthrax, if properly distributed, could cause the extinction of humans on earth.

  华盛顿—按重量计算,有史以来最致命的武器不是核武器,而是生物武器。一加仑的炭疽如果分布得当,可以造成地球上的人类灭绝。

  Even so, the trump administration has paid little attention to north Korea's development of biological weapons - a threat that analysts say is more urgent than north Korea's nuclear weapons. Pyongyang and Washington have been discussing nuclear weapons for more than six months.

  即便如此,特朗普政府对朝鲜发展生物武器的行为也没有给予多少关注—分析人士称,这种威胁比朝鲜的核武器更为紧迫。平壤和华盛顿已经就核武器问题讨论了6个多月。

  According to an analysis released last month by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, north Korea is working with foreign researchers to learn biotechnology skills and build machinery. The country's armed forces have rapidly increased.

  根据明德大学蒙特雷国际研学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)上月发布的一份分析报告,朝鲜正在与外国研究人员合作,学习生物技术技能并建造机械装置。该国武力由此得到迅速提高。

  North Korea is far more likely to use biological weapons than nuclear weapons, said Andrew c. Weber, the pentagon official in charge of nuclear, chemical and biological defense programs under President barack Obama. "It's an advanced, underrated, killer program."

  “朝鲜使用生物武器的可能性远远大于核武器,”在贝拉克·奥巴马执政期间负责核、化学和生物国防项目的五角大楼官员安德鲁·C·韦伯(Andrew C. Weber)说。“这是个先进的、被低估的、杀伤力极大的项目。”

  North Korea may wish to counter with devastating bacteria as a threat, as a way to fend off aggression. If so, its biological weapons would be a powerful deterrent.

  朝鲜可能希望以毁灭性的细菌反击作为威胁,作为抵御侵略的一种方式。如果是这样,它的生物武器将起到强大的威慑作用。

  But experts also worry about aggressive attacks and highly lethal agents, especially the smallpox virus, which spreads from person to person and kills a third of its victims. North Korea, long suspected by experts as a breeding ground for the disease, announced in 1980 that it had eradicated the disease from its population.

  但是专家们也担心主动攻击和杀伤力极强的战剂,尤其是天花病毒,它能进行人际传播,杀死三分之一的受害者。长期以来,专家们一直怀疑朝鲜是这种病菌的温床,而该国在1980年宣布已在其人口中根除此病。

  Worse, satellite images and Internet censorship of north Korea suggest Pyongyang has recently taken an interest in biotechnology and bacterial research, analysts say. In 2015, north Korean state media broadcast footage of the country's leader, Kim jong-un, visiting a biological factory, echoing his nuclear propaganda.

  分析人士说,更糟糕的是,卫星图像和对朝鲜的互联网审查表明,平壤最近开始对生物技术和细菌研究感兴趣。2015年,朝鲜官方媒体播放了朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)视察一家生物工厂的画面,与他的核宣传相呼应。

  But there are many troubling differences between biological threats and conventional weapons: germs are produced on a much smaller scale and are far cheaper to make than nuclear weapons. Deadly microbes may look like harmless ingredients in vaccines and farm produce. And biological weapons are hard to detect, track and control.

  但是与传统武器相比,生物威胁有许多令人不安的区别:病菌生产规模小,而且远比制造核武器便宜。致命的微生物看起来可能像是疫苗和农产品中无害的成分。而且生物武器很难被发现、追踪和控制。

  North Korea's high level of secrecy makes the threat, and its development in the country, difficult to assess. Right now, north Korea may have no biological weapons at all -- just research, samples, human tests, and the ability to rush into industrial production.

  朝鲜的高度机密性使得这种威胁,以及它在这个国家的发展程度很难评估。现在,朝鲜可能根本就没有生物武器——只有研究、样品、人体测试,以及紧急投入工业生产的能力。

  Still, Anthony h. Cordesman, a former pentagon intelligence official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said north Korea had "made significant progress" in all the areas of technology needed to build a large Arsenal of bacterial weapons. 纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com

  尽管如此,前五角大楼情报官员、现就职于战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的安东尼·H·科德斯曼(Anthony H. Cordesman)表示,朝鲜在制造一个大型细菌武器库所需的所有技术领域“都取得了重大进展”。

  In some unclassified reports, the trump administration has made vague references to north Korea's biological weapons program. President Donald trump did not mention biological weapons during his meeting with Kim jong-un in Singapore, according to us officials.

  在一些非机密的报告中,特朗普政府含糊地提到了朝鲜的生物武器计划。据美国官员透露,唐纳德·特朗普总统在新加坡与金正恩会晤时并未提及生物武器问题。

  In the last century, most of the countries that made biological weapons considered them impractical and gave up. Capricious winds could bring deadly viruses back to the users, infecting their military and civilians. The United States gave up its biological weapons stockpile in 1969.

  上个世纪,大多数制造生物武器的国家认为这些武器不实用,所以就放弃了。反复无常的风向可能会把致命的病毒带回到使用者身上,感染其军民。美国在1969年放弃了它的生物武器储备。

  But today, analysts say, the genetic revolution could make bacterial weapons more attractive. They found that pathogens designed to spread faster, infect more people, resist treatment and provide better targeting and containment. If so, north Korea may already be at the forefront.

  但是今天,分析人士说,基因革命可能会使细菌武器更有吸引力。他们发现,经设计的病原体有可能传播更快、感染更多人、更能抵抗治疗,并提供更好的靶向和遏制。如果是这样,朝鲜可能已经走在前列。

  A south Korean military white paper has identified at least 10 facilities in the north that may be involved in the research and production of more than a dozen biological agents, including those that can cause plague and hemorrhagic fever.

  韩国军方白皮书已经确认,朝鲜至少有10个设施,可能参与十多种生物制剂的研究和生产,包括能导致鼠疫和出血热的制剂。

  Several north Korean defectors tested positive for smallpox antibodies, suggesting they had either been exposed to the deadly virus or vaccinated, according to a report from the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

  哈佛大学肯尼迪学院贝尔福科学与国际事务中心(Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs)的报告显示,几名朝鲜叛逃军人的天花抗体检测呈阳性,表明他们要么接触过这种致命病毒,要么接种过疫苗。

  Smallpox killed 500 million people before it was declared eradicated. Today, the virus no longer exists and few people have been vaccinated against it.

  在天花被宣布消灭之前,它曾夺去五亿人的生命。今天,这种病毒已经不复存在,很少有人接种针对它的疫苗。

  Starting three years ago, Amplyfi, a strategic intelligence firm, saw a sharp increase in searches on north Korean networks for "antibiotic resistance", "microbial dark matter", "cas protein" and similar esoteric terms, indicating a growing interest in advanced genetic and bacterial research.

  从三年前开始,一家名为Amplyfi的战略情报公司发现,朝鲜网络上有关“抗生素耐药性”、“微生物暗物质”、“cas蛋白”以及类似的深奥术语的搜索量急剧增加,这表明他们对先进基因和细菌研究的兴趣日益浓厚。

纽约时报中英文网 http://www.qqenglish.com/

  According to the monterey institute's analysis, at least 100 research papers written jointly by north Korean and foreign scientists are related to military purposes, such as developing weapons of mass destruction. Such cooperation could violate international sanctions.

  根据蒙特雷研究所的分析,朝鲜和外国科学家联合撰写的至少100篇研究论文与军事目的有关,比如研发大规模杀伤性武器。这种合作可能违反国际制裁。

  Joseph s. Bermudez Jr., a north Korean military analyst, said it was entirely possible that the country had conducted gene-editing experiments that could enhance bacteria and viruses.

  朝鲜军事分析人士小约瑟夫·S·贝穆德兹(Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)说,朝鲜完全有可能已经进行了可以增强细菌和病毒的基因编辑实验。

  These people are scientists, and scientists like to think, he said.

  “这些人是科学家,科学家喜欢琢磨,”他说。

  In June 2015, Mr. Kim, dressed in a white lab coat, posed for a photo with military officers and scientists outside a modern-looking pesticide development facility called the institute of biotechnology. Since then, western concerns about north Korea's research and development program have grown rapidly.

  2015年6月,金正恩身穿白色实验服,与军官和科学家们一起在一个外观现代、名叫生物技术研究所的农药研制设施外摆姿势拍照。之后,西方对朝鲜研发计划的担忧迅速加剧。

  The factory is said to produce insecticides. The photos show huge fermentation tanks used for microbial growth and spray dryers that turn bacterial spores into fine powder that can be inhaled. Kim jong UN was beaming.

  这家工厂据称是生产杀虫剂的。照片展示了用于微生物生长的巨大发酵罐,以及可以将细菌孢子变成可吸入细粉末的喷雾干燥机。金正恩面带喜色。

  Melissa Hanham, the academic who first identified the potential threat to the facility, said the device model suggested that north Korea acquired the machines by evading sanctions - laundering money, setting up front companies or bribing people to buy them on the black market.

  最先发现该设施潜在威胁的学者梅丽莎·汉纳姆(Melissa Hanham)表示,设备型号显示,朝鲜是通过逃避制裁—洗钱、成立幌子公司或贿赂他人在黑市购买—才获得这些机器的。

  She said there was evidence that north Korea had succeeded in building a seemingly harmless agricultural factory that could be repurported to produce dried anthrax spores in a matter of weeks.

  她说,有证据表明,朝鲜成功地建造了一个看似无害的农业工厂,可以在几周内改变其用途,用于生产干炭疽孢子。

  In 2001, a teaspoon of anthrax packed in several envelopes killed five people, sickened 17 and sparked a nationwide scare after a biological weapons attack in the United States. The spores shut down congressional offices, the Supreme Court and much of the postal system, costing about $320 million to clean up.

  2001年,美国曾经遭受生物武器袭击,一茶匙装在几个信封里的炭疽粉导致五人死亡,17人患病,并引发了全国性的恐慌。这些孢子令国会办公室、最高法院和大部分邮政系统关闭,清理工作耗资约3.2亿美元。

  The federal biological weapons defense budget, which increased sharply after the attack, has declined in recent years.

  袭击发生后,联邦生物武器防务预算大幅增加,但近年来有所下降。

  Still, on the Korean peninsula, U.S. forces are preparing for a north Korean attack. According to the belfort center, U.S. forces in South Korea have been vaccinated against smallpox and anthrax since 2004.

  尽管如此,在朝鲜半岛,美国军队仍在为朝鲜的进攻做准备。根据贝尔福中心的报告,自2004年以来,驻韩美军一直在接种天花和炭疽疫苗。

  Army engineers recently accelerated the detection of biological agents from days to hours through Project Jupitr, or Joint U.S. Forces Korea Portal and Integrated Threat Recognition, a defense department spokesman said.

  美国国防部一名发言人说,最近,陆军工程人员通过朱庇特计划(Project Jupitr),即“联合美国驻韩部队门户与集成威胁识别计划”(Joint U.S. Forces Korea Portal and Integrated Threat Recognition),将探测生物制剂的时间从几天加快到几个小时。

  At the request of the house armed services committee, the comptroller general is currently conducting a review of military preparedness for bacterial attacks.

  应众议院军事委员会的要求,美国总审计长目前正在对细菌袭击的军事准备情况进行评估。

  If your country is far outclassed in conventional weapons, Mr. Hannam said. Lethal organisms like anthrax seem to be a good way to "do a lot of damage."

  “如果你的国家在常规武器方面被远远超过,”汉纳姆说。像炭疽这样的致命微生物似乎是一个好办法,“可以制造巨大的伤害。”

  She said such attacks would maximize casualties and threaten the uninfected population. For north Korea, she added, "that would be killing two birds with one stone."

  她说,这样的袭击将使伤亡人数最大化,同时威胁未受感染的人口。她还说,对于朝鲜来说,“那将是一石二鸟。”

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